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San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Boriosi M.
64'
Martucci A.

AI Match Summary

Poggibonsi in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Poggibonsi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
San Donato Tavarnelle
28%
Draws
22%
Poggibonsi
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: San Donato Tavarnelle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Poggibonsi lately — more wins on the board than San Donato Tavarnelle.
  • San Donato Tavarnelle are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
San Donato Tavarnelle Clean Sheet 68%
Poggibonsi Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Donato Tavarnelle Poggibonsi
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 6 7
Draws 12 9
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 0.63 0.75
Goals Conceded 1 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi
0:1
Oct 19, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs San Donato Tavarnelle
0:1
Feb 9, 2025 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi
0:0
Oct 13, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs San Donato Tavarnelle
2:1
Mar 3, 2024 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Donato Tavarnelle Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Poggibonsi Compare

Top Goalscorer Boriosi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Donato Tavarnelle 59 / 100
Poggibonsi 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Donato Tavarnelle Poggibonsi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Poggibonsi conceded in 74% of 31 recent games.

Solid form: San Donato Tavarnelle remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

San Donato Tavarnelle scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Scoring Trends

San Donato Tavarnelle VS Poggibonsi
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
25% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Grosseto34226658:2572
2Tau34189753:3363
3Prato34205949:2963
4Siena34179857:3560
5Seravezza Pozzi341512742:2957
6Terranuova Traiana341491128:3051
7Foligno341491145:3751
8Scandicci341115839:3248
9Montevarchi341016828:3246
10Sporting Trestina3410121240:4242
11San Donato Tavarnelle349131230:3540
12Ghiviborgo3410101442:4440
13Orvietana349111433:3738
14Follonica Gavorrano349101536:4937
15Camaiore Calcio34981741:5435
16Poggibonsi347101729:4631
17Cannara34682024:5926
18Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro342161620:4622