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San Felipe vs Curico Unido

Chile Chile

Liga de Ascenso Estadio Municipal de San Felipe
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

San Felipe play Curico Unido in the Liga de Ascenso. It looks like a close match. Recently, San Felipe averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Curico Unido averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. In past meetings, San Felipe won 2, Curico Unido won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 11, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for San Felipe and 1.50 for Curico Unido. This points to a Curico Unido double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
San Felipe
26%
Draws
38%
Curico Unido
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Curico Unido

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • San Felipe picked up more points recently compared to Curico Unido.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
San Felipe Clean Sheet 16%
Curico Unido Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Felipe Curico Unido
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 6 11
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 0.97 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
San Felipe vs Curico Unido
0:0
Sep 6, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
San Felipe vs Curico Unido
4:2
May 3, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Curico Unido vs San Felipe
3:0
Jul 14, 2024 Liga de Ascenso
San Felipe vs Curico Unido
3:1
Feb 24, 2024 Liga de Ascenso
Curico Unido vs San Felipe
2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Felipe 36 / 100
Curico Unido 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Felipe Curico Unido

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Curico Unido or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Felipe attacking → ← attacking Curico Unido

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Felipe scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Curico Unido let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

San Felipe went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Curico Unido lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 35
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cobreloa1585230:1729
2S. Wanderers1575329:1826
3San Marcos de Arica1567219:1125
4Deportes Temuco1565426:1823
5Antofagasta1565422:1623
6San Luis1565424:2123
7D. Puerto Montt1572617:1623
8U. Espanola1564521:1922
9Magallanes1564524:2422
10Recoleta1564524:2422
11Copiapo1564521:2322
12Curico Unido1546516:2418
13San Felipe1544713:2716
14Deportes Iquique1527619:2313
15Deportes Santa Cruz1526719:2612
16Rangers15031211:283