Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt

Chile Chile

Liga de Ascenso Estadio Municipal de San Felipe
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

San Felipe play D. Puerto Montt in the Liga de Ascenso. It looks like a close match. Recently, San Felipe averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. D. Puerto Montt averaged 1.59 goals scored and 0.96 conceded. In past meetings, San Felipe won 1, D. Puerto Montt won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 30, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for San Felipe and 1.56 for D. Puerto Montt. This points to a D. Puerto Montt double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
San Felipe
17%
Draws
55%
D. Puerto Montt
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: D. Puerto Montt

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • San Felipe picked up more points recently compared to D. Puerto Montt.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
San Felipe Clean Sheet 15%
D. Puerto Montt Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Felipe D. Puerto Montt
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 8 17
Draws 6 3
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 0.97 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.62 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt
1:0
Oct 14, 2023 Liga de Ascenso
San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt
0:1
Jun 3, 2023 Liga de Ascenso
D. Puerto Montt vs San Felipe
1:1
Nov 11, 2022 Liga de Ascenso
San Felipe vs D. Puerto Montt
0:1
Nov 6, 2022 Liga de Ascenso
D. Puerto Montt vs San Felipe
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Felipe Compare

Top Goalscorer Garcia L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

D. Puerto Montt Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Felipe 28 / 100
D. Puerto Montt 53 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Felipe D. Puerto Montt

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick D. Puerto Montt Win (2)
Secondary Pick D. Puerto Montt & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Felipe attacking → ← attacking D. Puerto Montt

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Felipe scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

D. Puerto Montt let in goals in 59% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

San Felipe went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

D. Puerto Montt lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 54
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cobreloa1585230:1729
2S. Wanderers1575329:1826
3San Marcos de Arica1567219:1125
4Deportes Temuco1565426:1823
5Antofagasta1565422:1623
6San Luis1565424:2123
7D. Puerto Montt1572617:1623
8U. Espanola1564521:1922
9Magallanes1564524:2422
10Recoleta1564524:2422
11Copiapo1564521:2322
12Curico Unido1546516:2418
13San Felipe1544713:2716
14Deportes Iquique1527619:2313
15Deportes Santa Cruz1526719:2612
16Rangers15031211:283