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San Ignacio vs Derio Prediction & H2H Stats

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Fernandez M.
69' Event
Lacuesta Terre A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
San Ignacio
30%
Draws
47%
Derio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Derio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Derio lately — more wins on the board than San Ignacio.
  • San Ignacio are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
San Ignacio Clean Sheet 68%
Derio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Ignacio Derio
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 14 15
Draws 7 7
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.6 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
San Ignacio vs Derio
1:1
Jan 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
San Ignacio vs Derio
1:2
Sep 7, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs San Ignacio
1:0
Apr 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
San Ignacio vs Derio
3:3
Nov 23, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs San Ignacio
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Ignacio Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Derio Compare

Top Goalscorer Lacuesta Terre A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Ignacio 86 / 100
Derio 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Ignacio Derio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Ignacio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: San Ignacio scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Derio has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

San Ignacio has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

San Ignacio VS Derio
2.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

San Ignacio

(Home)
04 Oct
Real Union B
0 : 3
San Ignacio
27 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 2
Pasaia
19 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 0
San Ignacio
12 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 1
Derio
05 Sept
SCD Durango
3 : 3
San Ignacio
Page 1 of 6

Derio

(Away)
04 Oct
Derio
2 : 0
Beasain
26 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
1 : 2
Derio
20 Sept
Derio
2 : 0
Santurtzi
16 Sept
Derio
3 : 5
Salamanca CF UDS
12 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 1
Derio
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aurrera de Vitoria 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Derio 5 3 2 0 7:2 11
3 Pasaia 5 3 1 1 7:6 10
4 Leioa 5 2 3 0 12:6 9
5 Real Sociedad C 5 2 2 1 10:8 8
6 Touring KE 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
7 UD Aretxabaleta 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
8 Alaves C 5 2 1 2 11:6 7
9 Lagun Onak 5 2 1 2 4:5 7
10 SCD Durango 5 1 3 1 8:8 6
11 SD Erandio 5 2 0 3 6:6 6
12 San Ignacio 5 1 2 2 8:7 5
13 Eibar C 5 1 2 2 8:8 5
14 Real Union B 5 1 2 2 7:11 5
15 Sodupe 5 1 2 2 4:9 5
16 Beasain 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
17 Santurtzi 5 1 0 4 2:7 3
18 Amurrio Club 5 0 1 4 1:12 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)