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San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS PayPal Park, San Jose, CA
San Jose Earthquakes Logo

San Jose Earthquakes

1 - 5
FT
Minnesota United Logo

Minnesota United

Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Werner T.
(Penalty)
10' Event
Pereyra J.
Assist: Markanich A.
40' Event
Yeboah K.
Assist: Duncan K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Minnesota United in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 1-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Minnesota United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
San Jose Earthquakes
20%
Draws
0%
Minnesota United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: San Jose Earthquakes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • San Jose Earthquakes have won more games recently than Minnesota United.
  • San Jose Earthquakes are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Minnesota United here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40.8%
San Jose Earthquakes Clean Sheet 68%
Minnesota United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Jose Earthquakes Minnesota United
Matches Played 27 26
Wins 12 7
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.85 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United
1:5
Apr 29, 2026 US Open Cup
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United
4:2
Jul 13, 2025 MLS
Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes
4:1
Mar 9, 2025 MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United
0:1
Sep 1, 2024 MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Jose Earthquakes Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Minnesota United Compare

Top Goalscorer Yeboah K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Pereyra J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Jose Earthquakes 95 / 100
Minnesota United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Jose Earthquakes Minnesota United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Jose Earthquakes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 8:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Jose Earthquakes's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Minnesota United has conceded goals in 85% of their last 26 outings.

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

San Jose Earthquakes has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

San Jose Earthquakes VS Minnesota United
1.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

San Jose Earthquakes

(Home)
27 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
3 : 1
Portland Timbers
19 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
2 : 2
Los Angeles FC
13 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
1 : 0
Houston Dynamo
10 Sept
San Diego FC
2 : 3
San Jose Earthquakes
06 Sept
Austin FC
1 : 1
San Jose Earthquakes
Page 1 of 6

Minnesota United

(Away)
27 Sept
Seattle Sounders
3 : 1
Minnesota United
20 Sept
Minnesota United
2 : 3
Los Angeles Galaxy
13 Sept
St. Louis City
4 : 2
Minnesota United
10 Sept
Minnesota United
1 : 2
FC Dallas
06 Sept
Portland Timbers
5 : 4
Minnesota United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 27 15 5 7 60:29 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 35:35 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 32:65 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
3 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
4 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
5 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 27 9 6 12 34:51 33
9 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
13 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)