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San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS PayPal Park, San Jose, CA
San Jose Earthquakes Logo

San Jose Earthquakes

1 - 3
FT
St. Louis City Logo

St. Louis City

Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Edelman D.
Assist: Wallem C.
27' Event
Becher S.
Assist: Lowen E.
46'
Sub
Tsakiris N. In: Jovanovic L.
Out: Tsakiris N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The MLS game between San Jose Earthquakes and St. Louis City finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward St. Louis City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
San Jose Earthquakes
30%
Draws
38%
St. Louis City
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: St. Louis City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • St. Louis City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
San Jose Earthquakes Clean Sheet 10%
St. Louis City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Jose Earthquakes St. Louis City
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 12 17
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 3
Goals Scored 1.79 2.19
Goals Conceded 1.61 1.22
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City
1:3
Apr 26, 2026 MLS
St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes
2:3
Sep 21, 2025 MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City
1:3
May 31, 2025 MLS
St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes
2:1
Feb 15, 2025 Club Friendly
St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Jose Earthquakes Compare

Top Goalscorer Leroux B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

St. Louis City Compare

Top Goalscorer Becher S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Edelman D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Jose Earthquakes 30 / 100
St. Louis City 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Jose Earthquakes St. Louis City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St. Louis City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: San Jose Earthquakes scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

San Jose Earthquakes went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

St. Louis City has conceded goals in 78% of their last 27 outings.

Scoring Trends

San Jose Earthquakes VS St. Louis City
1.38 Goals Scored 2.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

San Jose Earthquakes

(Home)
27 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
3 : 1
Portland Timbers
19 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
2 : 2
Los Angeles FC
13 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
1 : 0
Houston Dynamo
10 Sept
San Diego FC
2 : 3
San Jose Earthquakes
06 Sept
Austin FC
1 : 1
San Jose Earthquakes
Page 1 of 6

St. Louis City

(Away)
30 Sept
New York Red Bulls
0 : 3
St. Louis City
20 Sept
St. Louis City
3 : 1
Toronto FC
17 Sept
Colorado Rapids
0 : 3
St. Louis City
13 Sept
St. Louis City
4 : 2
Minnesota United
10 Sept
Portland Timbers
2 : 2
St. Louis City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 27 15 5 7 60:29 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 35:35 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 32:65 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
3 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
4 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
5 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 27 9 6 12 34:51 33
9 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
13 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)