Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Gunther Vogel
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

San Lorenzo play Nacional Asuncion in the Copa de Primera. It looks like a close match. Recently, San Lorenzo averaged 0.73 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Nacional Asuncion averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, San Lorenzo won 0, Nacional Asuncion won 2, and they drew 3. Their last match on Mar 22, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for San Lorenzo and 1.63 for Nacional Asuncion. This points to a Nacional Asuncion double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
San Lorenzo
35%
Draws
41%
Nacional Asuncion
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nacional Asuncion

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • San Lorenzo picked up more points recently compared to Nacional Asuncion.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
San Lorenzo Clean Sheet 14%
Nacional Asuncion Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Lorenzo Nacional Asuncion
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 13
Draws 9 11
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 0.73 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.47 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Copa de Primera
San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion
0:0
Jan 24, 2026 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs San Lorenzo
1:0
Oct 25, 2020 Copa de Primera
San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion
1:1
Aug 21, 2020 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs San Lorenzo
2:0
Feb 8, 2020 Copa de Primera
San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Lorenzo 24 / 100
Nacional Asuncion 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Lorenzo Nacional Asuncion

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Nacional Asuncion or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +50%
6.25
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.5%
3.23
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Lorenzo attacking → ← attacking Nacional Asuncion

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Lorenzo scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Nacional Asuncion let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

San Lorenzo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Nacional Asuncion lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 50
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Olimpia Asuncion22154337:1749
2Nacional Asuncion22109331:2239
3Cerro Porteno22115630:2238
4Sportivo Ameliano2289527:2133
5Sportivo Trinidense2288630:2432
6Libertad Asuncion2294934:2631
7Guarani2278727:2329
8Recoleta22841035:3228
9Rubio Nu22651115:2623
102 de Mayo22571018:3522
11Sp. Luqueno22551224:3320
12San Lorenzo22361314:4115