Sport Picks

South America

Copa Sudamericana Estadio Pedro Bidegain

Recoleta

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

San Lorenzo play Recoleta in the Copa Sudamericana. It looks like a close match. Recently, San Lorenzo averaged 1 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. Recoleta averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, San Lorenzo won 0, Recoleta won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 27, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for San Lorenzo and 1.25 for Recoleta. This points to a Recoleta double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

San Lorenzo

35%

Draws

34%

Recoleta

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Recoleta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

San Lorenzo picked up more points recently compared to Recoleta.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 37%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

San Lorenzo Clean Sheet 19%

Recoleta Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 57%

Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	San Lorenzo	Recoleta
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	8	10
Draws	14	10
Losses	8	10
Goals Scored	1	1.43
Goals Conceded	0.87	1.27
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 27, 2026 Copa Sudamericana

San Lorenzo vs Recoleta

Possession: 52% - 40% Cards: 1 - 2

0:1

Apr 8, 2026 Copa Sudamericana

Recoleta vs San Lorenzo

Possession: 43% - 56% Cards: 2 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Lorenzo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Recoleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Wlk A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Lorenzo 32 / 100

Recoleta 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

San Lorenzo Recoleta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Recoleta or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +34.8%

4.35

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +19.5%

3.23

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Lorenzo attacking → ← attacking Recoleta

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Lorenzo scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Recoleta let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

San Lorenzo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Recoleta lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 40

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Macara	6	2	4	0	6:3	10
2	Tigre	6	2	3	1	8:5	9
3	America De Cali	6	2	3	1	6:5	9
4	Alianza Atl.	6	0	2	4	2:9	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atletico-MG	6	3	1	2	8:6	10
2	Cienciano	6	2	2	2	5:7	8
3	Juventud	6	1	4	1	10:7	7
4	Academia Puerto Cabello	6	2	1	3	6:9	7

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sao Paulo	6	3	3	0	6:1	12
2	O Higgins	6	3	1	2	8:6	10
3	Millonarios	6	2	2	2	7:7	8
4	Boston River	6	1	0	5	5:12	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Recoleta	6	1	5	0	6:5	8
2	Santos	6	1	4	1	8:6	7
3	San Lorenzo	6	1	4	1	6:5	7
4	Dep. Cuenca	6	1	3	2	3:7	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Botafogo RJ	6	5	1	0	15:5	16
2	Caracas	6	2	3	1	9:9	9
3	Racing Club	6	2	2	2	11:9	8
4	Independiente	6	0	0	6	3:15	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Montevideo City	6	4	1	1	11:5	13
2	Gremio	6	3	2	1	8:3	11
3	Deportivo Riestra	6	1	2	3	4:10	5
4	Palestino	6	0	3	3	1:6	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Olimpia Asuncion	6	4	1	1	10:6	13
2	Vasco	6	3	1	2	10:6	10
3	A. Italiano	6	2	1	3	7:9	7
4	Barracas Central	6	0	3	3	2:8	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	River Plate	6	4	2	0	9:3	14
2	Bragantino	6	3	1	2	12:5	10
3	Carabobo	6	3	0	3	6:5	9
4	Blooming	6	0	1	5	3:17	1