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San Marcial vs CD Calahorra Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026
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Match Events

10' Event
Sanchez A.
21'
Ortega A.
48' Event
Taha M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 game between San Marcial and CD Calahorra finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Calahorra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
San Marcial
20%
Draws
51%
CD Calahorra
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CD Calahorra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and CD Calahorra come out ahead of San Marcial on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on CD Calahorra taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors CD Calahorra here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
San Marcial Clean Sheet 12%
CD Calahorra Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Marcial CD Calahorra
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 16
Draws 10 8
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.07 2.63
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs CD Calahorra
0:4
Dec 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
CD Calahorra vs San Marcial
6:1
Mar 19, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
CD Calahorra vs San Marcial
3:0
Oct 30, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs CD Calahorra
1:7
Feb 6, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs CD Calahorra
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Marcial Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

CD Calahorra Compare

Top Goalscorer Arbeloa M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sanchez A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marcial 11 / 100
CD Calahorra 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Marcial CD Calahorra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Calahorra Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.80 goals per match.

San Marcial found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

San Marcial went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

CD Calahorra's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

San Marcial VS CD Calahorra
1.13 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

San Marcial

(Home)
27 Sept
Berceo
2 : 1
San Marcial
18 Sept
San Marcial
1 : 1
Comillas CF
13 Sept
Varea
0 : 0
San Marcial
06 Sept
San Marcial
1 : 0
Vianes
10 May
San Marcial
0 : 2
Anguiano
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CD Calahorra

(Away)
27 Sept
CD Calahorra
5 : 0
Calasancio
18 Sept
Agoncillo
3 : 5
CD Calahorra
13 Sept
CD Calahorra
2 : 0
Oyonesa
06 Sept
CDFC La Calzada
2 : 1
CD Calahorra
24 May
Arnedo
1 : 0
CD Calahorra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones B 34 26 8 0 99:22 86
2 Varea 34 22 7 5 51:25 73
3 Arnedo 34 21 9 4 72:26 72
4 CD Calahorra 34 17 12 5 86:26 63
5 Oyonesa 34 18 7 9 54:41 61
6 Anguiano 34 17 9 8 49:36 60
7 Haro Deportivo 34 14 9 11 54:46 51
8 Agoncillo 34 13 8 13 59:49 47
9 Vianes 34 11 9 14 39:51 42
10 Yague 34 9 13 12 48:52 40
11 San Marcial 34 10 9 15 39:59 39
12 Berceo 34 10 9 15 42:50 39
13 CDFC La Calzada 34 10 8 16 40:55 38
14 Comillas CF 34 11 5 18 32:58 38
15 Pradejon 34 9 8 17 30:49 35
16 Villegas 34 7 7 20 36:66 28
17 Autol 34 4 6 24 20:80 18
18 Pena Balsamaiso 34 0 11 23 27:86 11
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 (Play Offs)