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San Marcial vs Haro Deportivo

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Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

San Marcial play Haro Deportivo in the Tercera RFEF - Group 16. It looks like a close match. Recently, San Marcial averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Haro Deportivo averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. In past meetings, San Marcial won 1, Haro Deportivo won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for San Marcial and 2.13 for Haro Deportivo. This points to a Haro Deportivo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
San Marcial
33%
Draws
37%
Haro Deportivo
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Haro Deportivo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • San Marcial picked up more points recently compared to Haro Deportivo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 2.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
San Marcial Clean Sheet 10%
Haro Deportivo Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Marcial Haro Deportivo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 12
Draws 9 9
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Haro Deportivo vs San Marcial
0:0
Jan 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Haro Deportivo
2:1
Jan 29, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Haro Deportivo vs San Marcial
5:0
Sep 11, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Haro Deportivo
1:8
Apr 24, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Haro Deportivo
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Marcial Compare

Top Goalscorer Nalda Flores R.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Haro Deportivo Compare

Top Goalscorer Zunzu
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marcial 29 / 100
Haro Deportivo 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Marcial Haro Deportivo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Haro Deportivo or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Marcial attacking → ← attacking Haro Deportivo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Marcial scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Haro Deportivo let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

San Marcial went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Haro Deportivo lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 45
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1UD Logrones B34268099:2286
2Varea34227551:2573
3Arnedo34219472:2672
4CD Calahorra341712586:2663
5Oyonesa34187954:4161
6Anguiano34179849:3660
7Haro Deportivo341491154:4651
8Agoncillo341381359:4947
9Vianes341191439:5142
10Yague349131248:5240
11San Marcial341091539:5939
12Berceo341091542:5039
13CDFC La Calzada341081640:5538
14Comillas CF341151832:5838
15Pradejon34981730:4935
16Villegas34772036:6628
17Autol34462420:8018
18Pena Balsamaiso340112327:8611