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San Marcial vs Pena Balsamaiso

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

San Marcial play Pena Balsamaiso in the Tercera RFEF - Group 16. San Marcial are favorites here. Recently, San Marcial averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Pena Balsamaiso averaged 0.77 goals scored and 2.53 conceded. In past meetings, San Marcial won 2, Pena Balsamaiso won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 21, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.13 for San Marcial and 1.75 for Pena Balsamaiso. This points to a San Marcial double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
San Marcial
28%
Draws
15%
Pena Balsamaiso
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: San Marcial

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

89% / Very High Confidence
  • San Marcial picked up more points recently compared to Pena Balsamaiso.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.13 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
San Marcial Clean Sheet 12%
Pena Balsamaiso Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Marcial Pena Balsamaiso
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 0
Draws 9 10
Losses 12 20
Goals Scored 1.13 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.7 2.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Pena Balsamaiso
1:0
Oct 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Pena Balsamaiso vs San Marcial
0:0
Apr 17, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Pena Balsamaiso vs San Marcial
2:0
Nov 29, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Pena Balsamaiso
3:0
Jan 26, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Pena Balsamaiso
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Marcial Compare

Top Goalscorer Reinaldo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Pena Balsamaiso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marcial 54 / 100
Pena Balsamaiso 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Marcial Pena Balsamaiso

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Marcial Win (1)
Secondary Pick San Marcial & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16.3%
2.04
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Marcial attacking → ← attacking Pena Balsamaiso

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Marcial scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Pena Balsamaiso let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

San Marcial went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Pena Balsamaiso lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 10
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1UD Logrones B34268099:2286
2Varea34227551:2573
3Arnedo34219472:2672
4CD Calahorra341712586:2663
5Oyonesa34187954:4161
6Anguiano34179849:3660
7Haro Deportivo341491154:4651
8Agoncillo341381359:4947
9Vianes341191439:5142
10Yague349131248:5240
11San Marcial341091539:5939
12Berceo341091542:5039
13CDFC La Calzada341081640:5538
14Comillas CF341151832:5838
15Pradejon34981730:4935
16Villegas34772036:6628
17Autol34462420:8018
18Pena Balsamaiso340112327:8611