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San Marcial vs Pena Balsamaiso Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Reinaldo A.
89'
Zannouti M.
89'
Asu F.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 game between San Marcial and Pena Balsamaiso finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward San Marcial.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
San Marcial
20%
Draws
0%
Pena Balsamaiso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: San Marcial

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Pena Balsamaiso haven't matched San Marcial's recent run of results.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on San Marcial taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
San Marcial Clean Sheet 17%
Pena Balsamaiso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Marcial Pena Balsamaiso
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 0
Draws 10 10
Losses 12 20
Goals Scored 1.07 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.63 2.53
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Pena Balsamaiso
1:0
Oct 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Pena Balsamaiso vs San Marcial
0:0
Apr 17, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Pena Balsamaiso vs San Marcial
2:0
Nov 29, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Pena Balsamaiso
3:0
Jan 26, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
San Marcial vs Pena Balsamaiso
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Marcial Compare

Top Goalscorer Reinaldo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Pena Balsamaiso Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marcial 84 / 100
Pena Balsamaiso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Marcial Pena Balsamaiso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Marcial Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pena Balsamaiso let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Difficult form: Pena Balsamaiso registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

San Marcial found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

San Marcial VS Pena Balsamaiso
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 3.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

San Marcial

(Home)
27 Sept
Berceo
2 : 1
San Marcial
18 Sept
San Marcial
1 : 1
Comillas CF
13 Sept
Varea
0 : 0
San Marcial
06 Sept
San Marcial
1 : 0
Vianes
10 May
San Marcial
0 : 2
Anguiano
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Pena Balsamaiso

(Away)
10 May
Pena Balsamaiso
0 : 5
UD Logrones B
30 Apr
Oyonesa
4 : 3
Pena Balsamaiso
26 Apr
Pena Balsamaiso
0 : 2
Pradejon
19 Apr
Anguiano
4 : 2
Pena Balsamaiso
12 Apr
Pena Balsamaiso
2 : 5
Haro Deportivo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones B 34 26 8 0 99:22 86
2 Varea 34 22 7 5 51:25 73
3 Arnedo 34 21 9 4 72:26 72
4 CD Calahorra 34 17 12 5 86:26 63
5 Oyonesa 34 18 7 9 54:41 61
6 Anguiano 34 17 9 8 49:36 60
7 Haro Deportivo 34 14 9 11 54:46 51
8 Agoncillo 34 13 8 13 59:49 47
9 Vianes 34 11 9 14 39:51 42
10 Yague 34 9 13 12 48:52 40
11 San Marcial 34 10 9 15 39:59 39
12 Berceo 34 10 9 15 42:50 39
13 CDFC La Calzada 34 10 8 16 40:55 38
14 Comillas CF 34 11 5 18 32:58 38
15 Pradejon 34 9 8 17 30:49 35
16 Villegas 34 7 7 20 36:66 28
17 Autol 34 4 6 24 20:80 18
18 Pena Balsamaiso 34 0 11 23 27:86 11
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 (Play Offs)