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San Marcos de Arica vs Coquimbo

Chile Chile

Copa Chile Estadio Carlos Dittborn
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

San Marcos de Arica play Coquimbo in the Copa Chile. It looks like a close match. Recently, San Marcos de Arica averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Coquimbo averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, San Marcos de Arica won 0, Coquimbo won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 27, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.67 for San Marcos de Arica and 1.73 for Coquimbo. This points to a Coquimbo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
San Marcos de Arica
33%
Draws
38%
Coquimbo
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Coquimbo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • San Marcos de Arica picked up more points recently compared to Coquimbo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.67 vs 1.73 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
San Marcos de Arica Clean Sheet 12%
Coquimbo Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Marcos de Arica Coquimbo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 9 9
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.2 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.07 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.71 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.57 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 Copa Chile
San Marcos de Arica vs Coquimbo
0:1
May 10, 2025 Copa Chile
Coquimbo vs San Marcos de Arica
3:0
Jan 28, 2025 Copa Chile
San Marcos de Arica vs Coquimbo
2:2
Sep 28, 2021 Liga de Ascenso
San Marcos de Arica vs Coquimbo
0:0
May 24, 2021 Liga de Ascenso
Coquimbo vs San Marcos de Arica
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Marcos de Arica Compare

Avg xG / game 0.55
Avg xA / game 0.35

Coquimbo Compare

Top Goalscorer Riveros L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marcos de Arica 29 / 100
Coquimbo 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Marcos de Arica Coquimbo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Coquimbo or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Marcos de Arica attacking → ← attacking Coquimbo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Marcos de Arica scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Coquimbo let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

San Marcos de Arica went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Coquimbo lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 54
0.71 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.57 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Coquimbo52307:39
2Deportes Iquique52219:58
3Limache522110:88
4San Marcos de Arica50142:121
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1U. Catolica550014:515
2Everton51229:95
3Copiapo51133:94
4San Luis50327:103
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Antofagasta541011:513
2La Serena52127:97
3Cobreloa51226:65
4Cobresal50232:62
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1U. De Chile531112:710
2Union La Calera52219:68
3San Felipe52126:77
4S. Wanderers51047:143
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Colo Colo531112:810
2O Higgins522110:78
3Recoleta51225:85
4U. Espanola51134:84
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nublense53118:510
2Curico Unido52217:68
3Rangers52034:66
4U. De Concepcion51137:94
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Deportes Santa Cruz54109:313
2A. Italiano53028:79
3Palestino52129:77
4Magallanes50055:140
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1D. Puerto Montt53118:410
2D. Concepcion53118:610
3Deportes Temuco51224:75
4Huachipato51046:93