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San Marcos vs Jalapa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Villalobos O.
17' Event
Paterson R.
55' Event
Olier A.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

San Marcos in this Liga Primera matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored San Marcos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
San Marcos
20%
Draws
15%
Jalapa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: San Marcos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Jalapa have won more games recently than San Marcos.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on San Marcos taking it.
  • Regular Liga Primera form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
San Marcos Clean Sheet 20%
Jalapa Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Marcos Jalapa
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 8 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.38 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.22
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Liga Primera
San Marcos vs Jalapa
3:1
Mar 30, 2014 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs San Marcos
2:1
Feb 9, 2014 Liga Primera
San Marcos vs Jalapa
2:2
Oct 27, 2013 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs San Marcos
2:1
Sep 8, 2013 Liga Primera
San Marcos vs Jalapa
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Marcos Compare

Top Goalscorer Paterson R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Acevedo T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Jalapa Compare

Top Goalscorer Villalobos O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marcos 76 / 100
Jalapa 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Marcos Jalapa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Marcos Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

San Marcos found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Jalapa let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

Recent resilience: San Marcos stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

San Marcos VS Jalapa
1 Goals Scored 0.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

San Marcos

(Home)
07 Oct
San Marcos
1 : 2
Diriangen
05 Sept
San Marcos
3 : 1
Jalapa
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
San Marcos
1 : 0
Walter Ferreti
23 Aug
Rancho Santana
1 : 2
San Marcos
Page 1 of 6

Jalapa

(Away)
04 Oct
Walter Ferreti
2 : 2
Jalapa
05 Sept
San Marcos
3 : 1
Jalapa
02 Sept
Jalapa
1 : 1
Rancho Santana
30 Aug
Diriangen
2 : 0
Jalapa
23 Aug
Jalapa
0 : 1
Matagalpa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Managua FC 10 8 2 0 33:10 26
2 Diriangen 10 8 2 0 22:7 26
3 UNAN-Managua 10 6 2 2 12:7 20
4 Esteli 10 5 3 2 17:7 18
5 Sport Sebaco 9 3 2 4 9:17 11
6 San Marcos 10 3 1 6 9:16 10
7 Matagalpa 9 3 0 6 4:16 9
8 Walter Ferreti 10 2 2 6 14:18 8
9 Jalapa 10 1 2 7 6:16 5
10 Rancho Santana 10 1 2 7 8:20 5
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)