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San Marcos vs Sport Sebaco - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
11:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

San Marcos host Sport Sebaco in the Liga Primera. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. San Marcos have averaged 1.38 scored and 1.83 conceded recently, against Sport Sebaco's 1.21 scored and 1.48 conceded. Head-to-head, San Marcos have won 0 to Sport Sebaco's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Jul 25, 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.38, favoring Sport Sebaco. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
San Marcos
15%
Draws
8%
Sport Sebaco
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: San Marcos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / Very High Confidence
  • Sport Sebaco carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives San Marcos a 77% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Primera form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
San Marcos Clean Sheet 17%
Sport Sebaco Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Marcos Sport Sebaco
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 10
Draws 6 5
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.38 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Liga Primera
Sport Sebaco vs San Marcos
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marcos 84 / 100
Sport Sebaco 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Marcos Sport Sebaco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Marcos Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Marcos scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Sport Sebaco let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: San Marcos remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

San Marcos VS Sport Sebaco
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

San Marcos

(Home)
07 Oct
San Marcos
1 : 2
Diriangen
05 Sept
San Marcos
3 : 1
Jalapa
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
San Marcos
1 : 0
Walter Ferreti
23 Aug
Rancho Santana
1 : 2
San Marcos
Page 1 of 6

Sport Sebaco

(Away)
10 Sept
Sport Sebaco
0 : 1
Diriangen
06 Sept
Sport Sebaco
1 : 3
UNAN-Managua
02 Sept
Sport Sebaco
1 : 1
Walter Ferreti
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
22 Aug
Managua FC
6 : 1
Sport Sebaco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Managua FC 10 8 2 0 33:10 26
2 Diriangen 10 8 2 0 22:7 26
3 Esteli 9 5 3 1 17:6 18
4 UNAN-Managua 9 5 2 2 11:7 17
5 Sport Sebaco 9 3 2 4 9:17 11
6 San Marcos 10 3 1 6 9:16 10
7 Matagalpa 9 3 0 6 4:16 9
8 Walter Ferreti 10 2 2 6 14:18 8
9 Jalapa 10 1 2 7 6:16 5
10 Rancho Santana 10 1 2 7 8:20 5
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)