Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Marino Calcio vs Aquila Calcio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

San Marino Calcio play Aquila Calcio in the Serie D - Group F. It looks like a close match. Recently, San Marino Calcio averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. Aquila Calcio averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. In past meetings, San Marino Calcio won 1, Aquila Calcio won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 11, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for San Marino Calcio and 1.38 for Aquila Calcio. This points to a Aquila Calcio double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
San Marino Calcio
23%
Draws
46%
Aquila Calcio
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Aquila Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • San Marino Calcio picked up more points recently compared to Aquila Calcio.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
San Marino Calcio Clean Sheet 17%
Aquila Calcio Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Marino Calcio Aquila Calcio
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 7 7
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.03 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Serie D - Group F
San Marino Calcio vs Aquila Calcio
1:3
Sep 14, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Aquila Calcio vs San Marino Calcio
3:1
Apr 15, 2018 Serie D - Group F
San Marino Calcio vs Aquila Calcio
2:3
Nov 26, 2017 Serie D - Group F
Aquila Calcio vs San Marino Calcio
1:1
Feb 14, 2015 Serie C - Group B
San Marino Calcio vs Aquila Calcio
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Marino Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Sambou B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Aquila Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Brunetti A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Di Renzo L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marino Calcio 31 / 100
Aquila Calcio 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Marino Calcio Aquila Calcio

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aquila Calcio or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Marino Calcio attacking → ← attacking Aquila Calcio

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Marino Calcio scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Aquila Calcio let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

San Marino Calcio went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Aquila Calcio lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

28 Points in last 5 40
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ostiamare34247365:2579
2Ancona34237459:2276
3Teramo342111265:2974
4Atletico Ascoli341413755:3555
5Notaresco Calcio341312943:3151
6Aquila Calcio341491153:4451
7Giulianova341116740:3149
8Vigor Senigallia341213945:4049
9Fossombrone3411111228:3444
10Unipomezia3410121243:4242
11Termoli348151127:3039
12Maceratese341151843:4938
13AS Sora349111440:5038
14Recanatese34881839:5732
15San Marino Calcio34871933:6131
16Calcio Chieti348111531:5524
17Castelfidardo34652330:6523
18Sammaurese34572230:6920