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San Marino Calcio vs Corticella

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

San Marino Calcio play Corticella in the Serie D - Group D 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, San Marino Calcio averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Corticella averaged 1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. In past meetings, San Marino Calcio won 1, Corticella won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 19, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.79 for San Marino Calcio and 1.69 for Corticella. This points to a Corticella double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
San Marino Calcio
20%
Draws
40%
Corticella
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Corticella

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence
  • San Marino Calcio picked up more points recently compared to Corticella.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.79 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
San Marino Calcio Clean Sheet 13%
Corticella Clean Sheet 18%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Marino Calcio Corticella
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 9
Draws 7 5
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.03 1
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.8

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group D
San Marino Calcio vs Corticella
1:0
Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs San Marino Calcio
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Marino Calcio Compare

Top Goalscorer Di Francesco D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Corticella Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marino Calcio 39 / 100
Corticella 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Marino Calcio Corticella

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Corticella or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Marino Calcio attacking → ← attacking Corticella

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Marino Calcio scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Corticella let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

San Marino Calcio went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Corticella lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 32
0.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
2.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Forli FC34273475:2484
2Ravenna34235665:2774
3Lentigione341811548:2765
4Tau34189754:2763
5Pistoiese34187945:2361
6Imolese341411952:4453
7Cittadella Vis Modena341381348:4047
8Piacenza3410121238:4042
9Prato341191434:3842
10Tuttocuoio3410121232:4342
11SCD Progresso3410111324:3241
12San Marino Calcio341081638:5138
13Sasso Marconi349101539:5137
14Corticella341061837:6536
15Sammaurese347101727:3731
16Fiorenzuola34752221:4626
17Zenith Prato341081636:5123
18United Riccione34572222:6922