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World

World Championship 2026 San Marino Stadium

Austria

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

San Marino play Austria in the World Championship 2026. Austria are favorites here. Recently, San Marino averaged 0.57 goals scored and 2.8 conceded. Austria averaged 2.07 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, San Marino won 0, Austria won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 9, 2025 ended 10:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.44 for San Marino and 3.06 for Austria. This points to a Austria double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

11%

San Marino

15%

Draws

74%

Austria

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Austria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

San Marino picked up more points recently compared to Austria.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.44 vs 3.06 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%

Over 1.5 Goals 81%

Over 2.5 Goals 62%

Over 3.5 Goals 37%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%

San Marino Clean Sheet 10%

Austria Clean Sheet 23%

First Half Goal 73%

Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	San Marino	Austria
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	2	16
Draws	3	6
Losses	25	7
Goals Scored	0.57	2.07
Goals Conceded	2.8	1.03
Expected Goals (xG)	0.50	2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	3.63	0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2025 World Championship

Austria vs San Marino

Possession: 43% - 43% Cards: 1 - 1

10:0

Jun 10, 2025 World Championship

San Marino vs Austria

Possession: 41% - 47% Cards: 0 - 3

0:4

Apr 27, 1999 Euro

Austria vs San Marino

Possession: 52% - 50% Cards: 4 - 3

7:0

Oct 13, 1998 Euro

San Marino vs Austria

Possession: 52% - 51% Cards: 1 - 1

1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Marino Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38

Avg xA / game 0.25

Austria Compare

Top Goalscorer Arnautovic M.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Gregoritsch M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.27

Avg xA / game 1.39

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marino 12 / 100

Austria 71 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

San Marino Austria

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Austria Win (2)

Secondary Pick Austria & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +266.6%

33.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.79

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Marino attacking → ← attacking Austria

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Marino scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Austria let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 6.50 goals.

San Marino went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Austria lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

9 Points in last 5 54

0.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.50

3.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	2	6:8	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	3	7:6	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	6	1:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scotland	6	4	1	1	13:7	13
2	Denmark	6	3	2	1	16:7	11
3	Greece	6	2	1	3	10:12	7
4	Belarus	6	0	2	4	4:17	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	6	5	1	0	16:4	16
2	Ukraine	6	3	1	2	10:11	10
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	13:11	7
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	6	5	1	0	21:2	16
2	Turkey	6	4	1	1	17:12	13
3	Georgia	6	1	0	5	7:15	3
4	Bulgaria	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	6	4	1	1	20:7	13
2	Ireland	6	3	1	2	9:7	10
3	Hungary	6	2	2	2	11:10	8
4	Armenia	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	8	6	2	0	27:4	20
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14:7	17
3	Finland	8	3	1	4	8:14	10
4	Malta	8	1	2	5	4:19	5
5	Lithuania	8	0	3	5	6:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria	8	6	1	1	22:4	19
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	5	2	1	17:7	17
3	Romania	8	4	1	3	19:10	13
4	Cyprus	8	2	2	4	11:11	8
5	San Marino	8	0	0	8	2:39	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	8	8	0	0	37:5	24
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21:12	18
3	Israel	8	4	0	4	19:20	12
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8:21	4
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5:32	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	8	5	3	0	29:7	18
2	Wales	8	5	1	2	21:11	16
3	North Macedonia	8	3	4	1	13:10	13
4	Kazakhstan	8	2	2	4	9:13	8
5	Liechtenstein	8	0	0	8	0:31	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	8	8	0	0	22:0	24
2	Albania	8	4	2	2	7:5	14
3	Serbia	8	4	1	3	9:10	13
4	Latvia	8	1	2	5	5:15	5
5	Andorra	8	0	1	7	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia	8	7	1	0	26:4	22
2	Czech Republic	8	5	1	2	18:8	16
3	Faroe Islands	8	4	0	4	11:9	12
4	Montenegro	8	3	0	5	8:17	9
5	Gibraltar	8	0	0	8	3:28	0