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San Marino vs Belarus - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League
Thu, Nov 12, 2026
VS
07:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

San Marino host Belarus in the UEFA Nations League. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: San Marino at 0.53 goals for, 2.93 against; Belarus at 1.14 for, 1.48 against. Head-to-head, San Marino have won 0 to Belarus's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Oct 3, 2026, ending 4:0. The numbers (0.88 xG vs 2.25) point toward Belarus. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
San Marino
20%
Draws
80%
Belarus
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Belarus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • San Marino haven't matched Belarus's recent run of results.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Belarus taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Belarus have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
San Marino Clean Sheet 10%
Belarus Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Marino Belarus
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 2 9
Draws 3 9
Losses 25 11
Goals Scored 0.53 1.14
Goals Conceded 2.93 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Belarus vs San Marino
4:0
Nov 18, 2018 UEFA Nations League
San Marino vs Belarus
0:2
Sep 8, 2018 UEFA Nations League
Belarus vs San Marino
5:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Marino 10 / 100
Belarus 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Marino Belarus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Belarus Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.67 goals as a typical output.

Belarus let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Attacking prowess: San Marino scored in 47% of their last 30 outings.

Belarus's recent record shows 1 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

San Marino VS Belarus
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
3 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

San Marino

(Home)
06 Oct
Albania
2 : 1
San Marino
03 Oct
Belarus
4 : 0
San Marino
29 Sept
San Marino
0 : 3
Albania
26 Sept
San Marino
0 : 7
Finland
09 Jun
Azerbaijan
2 : 1
San Marino
Page 1 of 6

Belarus

(Away)
06 Oct
Belarus
1 : 0
Finland
03 Oct
Belarus
4 : 0
San Marino
29 Sept
Finland
0 : 0
Belarus
26 Sept
Albania
2 : 0
Belarus
09 Jun
Belarus
2 : 2
Burkina Faso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Albania 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
2 Belarus 4 2 1 1 5:2 7
3 Finland 4 2 1 1 9:2 7
4 San Marino 4 0 0 4 1:16 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montenegro 4 3 1 0 7:4 10
2 Cyprus 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Armenia 4 1 1 2 4:5 4
4 Latvia 4 0 1 3 2:6 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Slovakia 4 3 1 0 9:2 10
2 Faroe Islands 4 0 4 0 5:5 4
3 Moldova 4 1 1 2 3:8 4
4 Kazakhstan 4 0 2 2 5:7 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iceland 4 2 2 0 7:1 8
2 Estonia 4 1 3 0 2:1 6
3 Bulgaria 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
4 Luxembourg 4 1 0 3 2:7 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)