Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Pedro Martir vs Villa Santa Brigida

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 12 2011/2012
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with San Pedro Martir averaging 1.2 xG at home and Villa Santa Brigida producing 1.0 xG on their travels. Villa Santa Brigida will likely drop deep and defend, forcing San Pedro Martir to find a way to break them down. The stats favor a low-scoring affair. Backing Under 2.5 goals looks like the smart play here. The numbers suggest backing Villa Santa Brigida has the better value, giving them a 52% chance.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
San Pedro Martir
35%
Draws
52%
Villa Santa Brigida
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Villa Santa Brigida

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • San Pedro Martir picked up more points recently compared to Villa Santa Brigida.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 0.99 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 51%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Over 3.5 Goals 17%
Over 4.5 Goals 8%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35%
San Pedro Martir Clean Sheet 23%
Villa Santa Brigida Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 46%
Second Half Goal 48%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Pedro Martir Villa Santa Brigida
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 2 14
Draws 6 5
Losses 22 12
Goals Scored 0.33 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.07 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

24.02.13 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Villa Santa Brigida vs San Pedro Martir
1:0
05.10.12 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Pedro Martir vs Villa Santa Brigida
1:1
23.03.12 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
San Pedro Martir vs Villa Santa Brigida
1:1
01.11.11 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Villa Santa Brigida vs San Pedro Martir
1:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

San Pedro Martir

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Villa Santa Brigida

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

San Pedro Martir Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
7 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
5 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.72

Villa Santa Brigida Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
7 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
5 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.72

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Villa Santa Brigida • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder San Pedro Martir • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Villa Santa Brigida • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker San Pedro Martir • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Pedro Martir 16 / 100
Villa Santa Brigida 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Pedro Martir Villa Santa Brigida

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Villa Santa Brigida or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +160%
20.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +27.4%
4.55
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

San Pedro Martir will likely press early to force mistakes.

San Pedro Martir 59%
Villa Santa Brigida 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Villa Santa Brigida should settle down and try to slow the pace.

San Pedro Martir 54%
Villa Santa Brigida 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

San Pedro Martir 51%
Villa Santa Brigida 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect San Pedro Martir to push more players wide.

San Pedro Martir 56%
Villa Santa Brigida 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

San Pedro Martir 51%
Villa Santa Brigida 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

San Pedro Martir 62%
Villa Santa Brigida 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

San Pedro Martir attacking → ← attacking Villa Santa Brigida

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

San Pedro Martir have scored in 89% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Villa Santa Brigida concede most goals (45%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 19 shots per game, well above the league median.

San Pedro Martir are unbeaten in 7 straight matches when scoring first.

Villa Santa Brigida have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: San Pedro Martir wants a European spot, while Villa Santa Brigida is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

12 Points in last 5 47
1.17 Goals expected (xG) 0.99
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2