Sport Picks

Stadium Background

San Telmo vs Defensores de Belgrano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Argentina Argentina

Primera Nacional Estadio Osvaldo Baletto, Dock Sud
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
08:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

San Telmo host Defensores de Belgrano in the Primera Nacional. This one's hard to separate. Defensores de Belgrano have shipped 0.93 goals a game lately, while San Telmo have conceded 1 and scored 0.82. Head-to-head, San Telmo have won 2 to Defensores de Belgrano's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on May 30, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 0.94 vs 1.19, favoring San Telmo. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
San Telmo
30%
Draws
31%
Defensores de Belgrano
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: San Telmo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • San Telmo have won more games recently than Defensores de Belgrano.
  • Win probability leans San Telmo's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Primera Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
San Telmo Clean Sheet 20%
Defensores de Belgrano Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric San Telmo Defensores de Belgrano
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 7
Draws 8 11
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 0.82 0.76
Goals Conceded 1 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Primera Nacional
Defensores de Belgrano vs San Telmo
1:0
Jul 31, 2025 Primera Nacional
Defensores de Belgrano vs San Telmo
1:2
Feb 23, 2025 Primera Nacional
San Telmo vs Defensores de Belgrano
0:3
Aug 18, 2024 Primera Nacional
San Telmo vs Defensores de Belgrano
1:2
Apr 1, 2024 Primera Nacional
Defensores de Belgrano vs San Telmo
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

San Telmo 40 / 100
Defensores de Belgrano 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
San Telmo Defensores de Belgrano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Telmo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Defensores de Belgrano conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Recent resilience: San Telmo stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: San Telmo scored in 50% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

San Telmo VS Defensores de Belgrano
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

San Telmo

(Home)
04 Oct
San Telmo
3 : 2
Almirante Brown
27 Sept
CA Mitre
0 : 2
San Telmo
19 Sept
San Telmo
0 : 1
CA Estudiantes
12 Sept
All Boys
0 : 1
San Telmo
05 Sept
San Telmo
0 : 0
Los Andes
Page 1 of 6

Defensores de Belgrano

(Away)
04 Oct
Chaco For Ever
2 : 2
Defensores de Belgrano
27 Sept
Defensores de Belgrano
0 : 1
Ferro
20 Sept
Central Norte
0 : 1
Defensores de Belgrano
14 Sept
Defensores de Belgrano
2 : 1
Deportivo Madryn
09 Sept
Defensores de Belgrano
1 : 1
Los Andes
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ferro 32 18 7 7 36:27 61
2 Deportivo Moron 32 17 7 8 51:32 58
3 Godoy Cruz 32 16 8 8 42:29 56
4 Deportivo Madryn 32 14 11 7 46:28 53
5 Colon Santa Fe 32 14 10 8 39:25 52
6 Almirante Brown 32 12 10 10 25:21 46
7 CA Estudiantes 32 12 9 11 29:27 45
8 Ciudad Bolivar 32 11 12 9 27:28 45
9 Los Andes 32 9 13 10 25:23 40
10 Chaco For Ever 32 9 10 13 30:33 37
11 Defensores de Belgrano 32 8 13 11 25:29 37
12 San Telmo 32 9 10 13 28:36 37
13 Racing Cordoba 32 9 10 13 29:39 37
14 CA Mitre 32 7 14 11 29:39 35
15 Central Norte 32 6 15 11 20:29 33
16 All Boys 32 6 15 11 18:28 33
17 San Miguel 32 6 13 13 25:38 31
18 Acassuso 32 7 8 17 22:35 29
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tristan Suarez 32 15 13 4 32:15 58
2 Temperley 32 15 11 6 38:26 56
3 Atletico Atlanta 32 17 4 11 38:30 55
4 Gimnasia Jujuy 32 15 9 8 48:40 54
5 Midland 32 13 9 10 34:26 48
6 Gimnasia y Tiro 32 13 9 10 32:28 48
7 Deportivo Maipu 32 13 8 11 39:31 47
8 Colegiales 32 13 7 12 32:31 46
9 San Martin S.J. 32 12 9 11 34:32 45
10 San Martin T. 32 10 13 9 35:32 43
11 Atl. Rafaela 32 11 9 12 27:30 42
12 Quilmes 32 10 9 13 30:27 39
13 Almagro 32 10 8 14 28:38 38
14 Agropecuario 32 9 10 13 26:35 37
15 Nueva Chicago 32 9 9 14 23:30 36
16 Patronato 32 6 16 10 27:32 34
17 Chacarita Juniors 32 9 6 17 24:33 33
18 Club Atletico Guemes 32 5 8 19 23:54 23
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)