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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J1 League Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
05:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sanfrecce Hiroshima host Kyoto in the J1 League. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Sanfrecce Hiroshima have averaged 2.11 scored and 1.07 conceded recently, against Kyoto's 1.14 scored and 1.79 conceded. Past meetings favor Kyoto slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 17, 2026, ending 0:4. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 0.81, favoring Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
15%
Draws
28%
Kyoto
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Kyoto haven't matched Sanfrecce Hiroshima's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Clean Sheet 20%
Kyoto Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sanfrecce Hiroshima Kyoto
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 17 10
Draws 2 2
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 2.11 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 J1 League
Kyoto vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0:4
Feb 27, 2026 J1 League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto
1:2
Sep 12, 2025 J1 League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto
1:1
Mar 29, 2025 J1 League
Kyoto vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1:0
Nov 3, 2024 J1 League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 85 / 100
Kyoto 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Kyoto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scored in 89% of their last 27 games.

Kyoto's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sanfrecce Hiroshima VS Kyoto
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

(Home)
29 Sept
Tochigi City
0 : 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
19 Sept
Avispa Fukuoka
0 : 1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
12 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
6 : 1
Cerezo Osaka
06 Sept
Okayama
3 : 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
02 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 : 0
Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 6

Kyoto

(Away)
03 Oct
Machida Zelvia
1 : 0
Kyoto
23 Sept
Kyoto
1 : 0
Fujieda MYFC
19 Sept
Okayama
1 : 2
Kyoto
15 Sept
Daejeon
1 : 0
Kyoto
11 Sept
Kyoto
2 : 3
Kashiwa Reysol
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vissel Kobe 8 6 1 1 12:5 19
2 Kashiwa Reysol 8 6 0 2 17:12 18
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 5 2 1 20:6 17
4 Machida Zelvia 8 5 2 1 21:10 17
5 FC Tokyo 8 5 2 1 14:8 17
6 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 4 2 2 13:9 14
7 Kawasaki Frontale 8 3 4 1 16:12 13
8 Kashima Antlers 8 4 1 3 17:16 13
9 Okayama 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
10 Urawa Reds 8 4 0 4 16:18 12
11 Cerezo Osaka 8 3 2 3 7:12 11
12 Shimizu S-Pulse 8 3 1 4 6:8 10
13 Mito 8 2 3 3 11:11 9
14 Kyoto 8 2 2 4 11:15 8
15 V-Varen Nagasaki 8 2 2 4 10:15 8
16 Gamba Osaka 8 1 3 4 8:14 6
17 Nagoya Grampus 8 2 0 6 7:14 6
18 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1 1 6 9:12 4
19 Verdy 8 0 4 4 4:12 4
20 Chiba 8 1 1 6 7:18 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)