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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Okinawa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

Emperors Cup Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Araki H.
Own Goal
14' Event
Matsumoto T.
35'
Sub
Yamasaki T. In: Shiotani T.
Out: Yamasaki T.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-1. The second leg ended 4-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
15%
Draws
34%
Okinawa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Okinawa haven't matched Sanfrecce Hiroshima's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sanfrecce Hiroshima, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Clean Sheet 68%
Okinawa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sanfrecce Hiroshima Okinawa
Matches Played 29 10
Wins 21 2
Draws 2 0
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 2.45 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.93 3.3
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2026 Emperors Cup
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Okinawa
4:1
Jul 3, 2019 Emperors Cup
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Okinawa
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Compare

Top Goalscorer Kato M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Matsumoto T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.07
Avg xA / game 1.34

Okinawa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 95 / 100
Okinawa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Okinawa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sanfrecce Hiroshima's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Okinawa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 100% of 10 matches.

H2H data points to 4.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Sanfrecce Hiroshima stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sanfrecce Hiroshima VS Okinawa
2.88 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

(Home)
31 Oct
Mito
0 : 3
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
28 Oct
Yokohama F. Marinos
4 : 3
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
24 Oct
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4 : 0
Shimizu S-Pulse
21 Oct
V-Varen Nagasaki
4 : 0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
17 Oct
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 : 0
Kyoto
Page 1 of 6

Okinawa

(Away)
26 Aug
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4 : 1
Okinawa
19 Aug
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 2
Okinawa
16 Jan
Okinawa
1 : 6
Kyoto
11 Jun
Avispa Fukuoka
2 : 0
Okinawa
25 May
Okinawa
4 : 1
Verspah Oita
Page 1 of 2

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals
Vissel Kobe -
TBD -
Veroskronos Tsuno 3
Kamatamare Sanuki 1
Sagan Tosu -
TBD -
TBD -
Toyama -
Shimizu S-Pulse -
TBD -
Nara Club 1
FC Osaka 4
V-Varen Nagasaki -
TBD -
Ehime 2
International Pacific Univesity 1
Kashima Antlers -
TBD -
Atletico Suzuka 2
Basara Hyogo 1
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo -
TBD -
TBD -
Kofu -
Cerezo Osaka -
TBD -
Gifu 3
Toyama Shinjo 1
Albirex Niigata -
TBD -
Kagoshima United 2
Renofa Yamaguchi 1
Avispa Fukuoka -
TBD -
Verspah Oita 3
Kochi United 0
Yokohama FC -
TBD -
Ryutsu Keizai University 1
Criacao Shinjuku 2
FC Tokyo -
TBD -
Nagano Parceiro 2
Fukui Utd. 1
Shonan Bellmare -
TBD -
Reinmeer Aomori 15
Akita University 0
Kawasaki Frontale -
TBD -
Tochigi SC 2
Urayasu SC 0
Iwata -
TBD -
TBD -
Tegevajaro Miyazaki -
Yokohama F. Marinos -
TBD -
Fukushima United 7
Oyama 0
Mito -
TBD -
Kanazawa 1
Kyoto Sangyo 4
Machida Zelvia -
TBD -
Iwate Grulla Morioka 1
Sapporo University FC 0
Vegalta Sendai -
TBD -
TBD -
Tochigi City -
Nagoya Grampus -
TBD -
Gainare Tottori 3
Kumamoto 2
Verdy -
TBD -
Tohoku Gakuin University 1
Thespakusatsu Gunma 3
Kashiwa Reysol -
TBD -
Senshu University 2
Tsukuba Univ. 1
Imabari -
TBD -
TBD -
Blaublitz -
Okayama -
TBD -
Belugarosso Iwami 2
Nagasaki Intl University 0
Chiba -
TBD -
Arterivo Wakayama 0
Azul Claro Numazu 6
Kyoto -
TBD -
SRC Hiroshima 1
Maruyasu Okazaki 6
Montedio Yamagata -
TBD -
TBD -
Fujieda MYFC -
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
TBD -
Giravanz Kitakyushu 1
Okinawa 2
Iwaki -
TBD -
TBD -
Oita Trinita -
Gamba Osaka -
TBD -
Reilac Shiga 2
Japan Soccer 1
Tokushima -
TBD -
FC Tokushima 1
Kawasoe Club 0
Urawa Reds -
TBD -
Yamanashi Gakuin 1
Tokyo International University 0
Omiya Ardija -
TBD -
TBD -
Vanraure -
1/32-finals
Vissel Kobe 2
Veroskronos Tsuno 1
Sagan Tosu 4
Toyama 0
Shimizu S-Pulse 2
FC Osaka 1
V-Varen Nagasaki 3
Ehime 2
Kashima Antlers 3
Atletico Suzuka 0
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1
Kofu 3
Cerezo Osaka 3
Gifu 1
Albirex Niigata 0
Kagoshima United 4
Avispa Fukuoka 1
Verspah Oita 0
Yokohama FC 3
Criacao Shinjuku 1
FC Tokyo 6
Nagano Parceiro 0
Shonan Bellmare 1
Reinmeer Aomori 0
Kawasaki Frontale 3
Tochigi SC 1
Iwata 0
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1
Yokohama F. Marinos 1
Fukushima United 0
Mito 0
Kyoto Sangyo 2
Machida Zelvia 3
Iwate Grulla Morioka 0
Vegalta Sendai 1
Tochigi City 2
Nagoya Grampus 1
Gainare Tottori 3
Verdy 4
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1
Kashiwa Reysol 2
Senshu University 1
Imabari 4
Blaublitz 1
Okayama 3
Belugarosso Iwami 0
Chiba 2
Azul Claro Numazu 1
Kyoto 1
Maruyasu Okazaki 0
Montedio Yamagata 3
Fujieda MYFC 5
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4
Okinawa 1
Iwaki 2
Oita Trinita 0
Gamba Osaka 2
Reilac Shiga 0
Tokushima 3
FC Tokushima 0
Urawa Reds 3
Yamanashi Gakuin 0
Omiya Ardija 2
Vanraure 0
1/16-finals
Vissel Kobe 1
Sagan Tosu 0
Shimizu S-Pulse 2
V-Varen Nagasaki 1
Kashima Antlers 3
Kofu 1
Cerezo Osaka 2
Kagoshima United 0
Avispa Fukuoka 0
Yokohama FC 1
FC Tokyo 4
Shonan Bellmare 0
Kawasaki Frontale 2
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0
Yokohama F. Marinos 2
Kyoto Sangyo 1
Machida Zelvia 2
Tochigi City 1
Gainare Tottori 0
Verdy 1
Kashiwa Reysol 4
Imabari 0
Okayama 1
Chiba 0
Kyoto 1
Fujieda MYFC 0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4
Iwaki 0
Gamba Osaka 5
Tokushima 0
Urawa Reds 3
Omiya Ardija 2
1/8-finals
Vissel Kobe -
Shimizu S-Pulse -
Kashima Antlers -
Cerezo Osaka -
Yokohama FC -
FC Tokyo -
Kawasaki Frontale -
Yokohama F. Marinos -
Machida Zelvia -
Verdy -
Kashiwa Reysol -
Okayama -
Kyoto -
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -
Gamba Osaka -
Urawa Reds -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -