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Sanjoanense vs Guarda FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B Estádio Conde Dias Garcia, São João da Madeira
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AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B game between Sanjoanense and Guarda FC finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sanjoanense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Sanjoanense
20%
Draws
23%
Guarda FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sanjoanense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Guarda FC come out ahead of Sanjoanense on wins alone.
  • Model gives Sanjoanense a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Sanjoanense Clean Sheet 68%
Guarda FC Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sanjoanense Guarda FC
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 6 9
Draws 7 6
Losses 17 14
Goals Scored 1.2 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.07 1.46
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Sanjoanense vs Guarda FC
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sanjoanense 59 / 100
Guarda FC 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sanjoanense Guarda FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sanjoanense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sanjoanense's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Guarda FC conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Sanjoanense remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Guarda FC's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sanjoanense VS Guarda FC
1 Goals Scored 1.43
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.14
75% Over 1.5 43%
50% Over 2.5 43%
13% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Sanjoanense

(Home)
20 Sept
Anca
1 : 4
Sanjoanense
13 Sept
Florgrade
2 : 0
Sanjoanense
06 Sept
Sanjoanense
3 : 1
FC Alpendorada
30 Aug
Sanjoanense
3 : 0
Pacos de Brandao
23 Aug
SC Salgueiros
1 : 1
Sanjoanense
Page 1 of 6

Guarda FC

(Away)
20 Sept
Guarda FC
2 : 3
Chaves
13 Sept
Guarda FC
2 : 2
Camacha
06 Sept
Uniao Lamas
1 : 0
Guarda FC
30 Aug
Ac. Fundao
0 : 6
Guarda FC
23 Aug
Florgrade
1 : 0
Guarda FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Ovarense 4 4 0 0 8:0 12
2 Machico 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
3 Camacha 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
4 Castro Daire 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
5 Florgrade 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
6 SC Salgueiros 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
7 Cinfaes 4 1 2 1 6:5 5
8 Sanjoanense 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
9 Uniao Lamas 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
10 Beira Mar 4 0 3 1 4:6 3
11 FC Alpendorada 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
12 Estrela Calheta 4 0 2 2 2:8 2
13 Guarda FC 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
14 Sousense 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)