Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sanjoanense vs Trofense

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio Conde Dias Garcia, São João da Madeira
Sanjoanense Logo

Sanjoanense

2 - 4
FT
Trofense Logo

Trofense

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Diarra M.
Assist: Nuninho
38' Event
Cunha G.
(Penalty)
40'
Martins J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Sanjoanense and Trofense finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Trofense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Sanjoanense
20%
Draws
16%
Trofense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sanjoanense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Trofense come out ahead of Sanjoanense on wins alone.
  • Sanjoanense are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Sanjoanense Clean Sheet 68%
Trofense Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sanjoanense Trofense
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 3 5
Draws 10 10
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 1.1 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2026 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Trofense
2:4
Oct 4, 2025 Liga 3
Trofense vs Sanjoanense
1:2
Apr 26, 2025 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Trofense
3:1
Feb 22, 2025 Liga 3
Trofense vs Sanjoanense
2:0
Dec 7, 2024 Liga 3
Trofense vs Sanjoanense
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sanjoanense Compare

Top Goalscorer Maio F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sa G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Trofense Compare

Top Goalscorer Diarra M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Melro R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sanjoanense 59 / 100
Trofense 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sanjoanense Trofense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sanjoanense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Trofense let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Sanjoanense scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Trofense lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sanjoanense VS Trofense
0.88 Goals Scored 0.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sanjoanense

(Home)
16 Aug
Sanjoanense
1 : 1
Beira Mar
18 Jul
Sanjoanense
0 : 1
AD Fafe
15 Jul
Sanjoanense
0 : 3
FC Felgueiras
03 May
Sao Joao de Ver
2 : 1
Sanjoanense
26 Apr
Sanjoanense
1 : 0
Paredes
Page 1 of 6

Trofense

(Away)
15 Aug
SC Vianense
2 : 0
Trofense
09 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
Varzim
01 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
SC Salgueiros
31 Jul
AFS
1 : 1
Trofense
16 May
Academica
3 : 0
Trofense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Guimaraes B 18 8 5 5 20:16 29
2 Amarante FC 18 8 5 5 19:17 29
3 Trofense 18 7 7 4 23:15 28
4 Varzim 18 7 7 4 26:17 28
5 Paredes 18 6 9 3 22:12 27
6 Braga B 18 6 7 5 16:17 25
7 AD Fafe 18 6 6 6 23:21 24
8 AD Marco 09 18 4 7 7 15:22 19
9 Sao Joao de Ver 18 2 8 8 11:26 14
10 Sanjoanense 18 2 7 9 20:32 13
Promotion - Liga 3 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 18 12 2 4 27:16 38
2 Mafra 18 9 7 2 28:19 34
3 Academica 18 7 7 4 29:18 28
4 Santarem 18 6 7 5 15:14 25
5 Atletico CP 18 6 4 8 16:17 22
6 Lusitano GC 18 6 4 8 19:19 22
7 Amora 18 5 6 7 19:22 21
8 Caldas SC 18 6 3 9 17:23 21
9 1º Dezembro 18 3 8 7 13:21 17
10 Covilha 18 2 8 8 10:24 14
Promotion - Liga 3 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)