Sport Picks
Santa Amalia vs AD Llerenense Prediction & H2H Stats
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 
Match Events
25'
25'
Martinez J.
30'
30'
Benjumea E.
63'
63'
Palomo J.
AI Match Summary
AD Llerenense in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored AD Llerenense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
21%
35%
44%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: AD Llerenense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to AD Llerenense lately — more wins on the board than Santa Amalia.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- AD Llerenense have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Santa Amalia Clean Sheet 68%
AD Llerenense Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Santa Amalia | AD Llerenense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 8 | 12 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 15 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs AD Llerenense
1:2
Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Santa Amalia
1:0
May 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Santa Amalia
1:2
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs AD Llerenense
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Santa Amalia Compare
Top Goalscorer Martinez J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
AD Llerenense Compare
Top Goalscorer Benjumea E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Palomo J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Santa Amalia 42 / 100
AD Llerenense 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Santa Amalia AD Llerenense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Santa Amalia found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).
AD Llerenense let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Santa Amalia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Santa Amalia VS AD Llerenense
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Santa Amalia
(Home) 27 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1 Moralo
20 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1 Pueblonuevo
13 Sept
Santa Amalia
3 : 0 Quintana
06 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 0 Santa Amalia
10 May
Montijo
2 : 1 Santa Amalia
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1 Moralo
20 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1 Pueblonuevo
13 Sept
Santa Amalia
3 : 0 Quintana
03 May
Santa Amalia
0 : 2 Moralo
19 Apr
Santa Amalia
0 : 2 SP Villafranca
Page 1 of 4
AD Llerenense
(Away) 27 Sept
CD Zafra
0 : 0 AD Llerenense
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1 AD Llerenense
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Guadiana
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1 CD Calamonte
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
CD Zafra
0 : 0 AD Llerenense
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1 AD Llerenense
01 May
Puebla de la Calzada
4 : 1 AD Llerenense
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2 AD Llerenense
03 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
1 : 0 AD Llerenense
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don Benito | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 70:22 | 71 |
| 2 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 64:27 | 71 |
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53:31 | 62 |
| 5 | Jaraiz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53:33 | 59 |
| 6 | Cabeza del Buey | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 45:29 | 57 |
| 7 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 45:40 | 55 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 45:36 | 53 |
| 9 | Montijo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 43:42 | 46 |
| 10 | Jerez CF | 34 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 56:51 | 41 |
| 11 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35:44 | 41 |
| 12 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35:48 | 38 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30:52 | 34 |
| 14 | Gevora | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 32:53 | 33 |
| 15 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 29:55 | 33 |
| 16 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 33:63 | 30 |
| 17 | Montehermoso | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 24:66 | 23 |
| 18 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25:47 | 22 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
