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Santa Catarina vs Avai Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Estadio Municipal Alfredo Joao Krieck, Rio do Sul
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Cleberson
11' Event
Daniel Penha
12'
Luiz Henrique

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-0. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Santa Catarina
20%
Draws
10%
Avai
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Santa Catarina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Santa Catarina come out ahead of Avai on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Santa Catarina's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Santa Catarina have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Avai, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Avai here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Santa Catarina Clean Sheet 68%
Avai Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Catarina Avai
Matches Played 33 36
Wins 16 13
Draws 8 5
Losses 9 18
Goals Scored 1.48 1.25
Goals Conceded 1 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Catarinense
Avai vs Santa Catarina
3:0
Feb 14, 2026 Catarinense
Santa Catarina vs Avai
1:2
Jan 25, 2026 Catarinense
Santa Catarina vs Avai
3:1
Mar 8, 2025 Catarinense
Santa Catarina vs Avai
1:2
Jan 15, 2025 Catarinense
Avai vs Santa Catarina
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Catarina Compare

Top Goalscorer Luan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Avai Compare

Top Goalscorer Daniel Penha
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thayllon
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Catarina 95 / 100
Avai 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Catarina Avai

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Catarina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Catarina found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (33 games).

Avai let in goals in 78% of their last 36 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Santa Catarina has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Santa Catarina VS Avai
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Catarina

(Home)
20 Sept
Santa Catarina
1 : 2
Figueirense
13 Sept
Santa Catarina
2 : 1
Marcilio Dias
06 Sept
Nacao
2 : 2
Santa Catarina
29 Aug
Blumenau
0 : 1
Santa Catarina
27 Jun
Santa Catarina
1 : 2
EC Sao Jose (PA)
Page 1 of 7

Avai

(Away)
27 Sept
Criciuma
3 : 0
Avai
20 Sept
Goias
2 : 1
Avai
15 Sept
Avai
1 : 1
Vila Nova FC
09 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Avai
05 Sept
Novorizontino
3 : 1
Avai
Page 1 of 8

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Concordia 2
Criciuma 6
TBD -
Brusque -
Santa Catarina 1
Avai 5
TBD -
Camboriu -
Semi-finals
Criciuma 1
Brusque 0
Avai 0
Camboriu 1
Final
Criciuma 4
Camboriu 3