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Santa Cruz MT vs Uirapuru - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-3. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Santa Cruz MT have averaged 1.14 scored and 1.1 conceded recently, against Uirapuru's 1.93 scored and 2.07 conceded. Head-to-head, Santa Cruz MT have won 1 to Uirapuru's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Sep 19, 2026, ending 2:3. Model xG sits at 1.56 vs 1.31, favoring Santa Cruz MT. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Santa Cruz MT
20%
Draws
20%
Uirapuru
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Santa Cruz MT

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Santa Cruz MT come out ahead of Uirapuru on wins alone.
  • Model gives Santa Cruz MT a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Santa Cruz MT have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Santa Cruz MT Clean Sheet 18%
Uirapuru Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz MT Uirapuru
Matches Played 21 15
Wins 7 5
Draws 5 3
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.14 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.1 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Uirapuru vs Santa Cruz MT
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz MT 85 / 100
Uirapuru 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz MT Uirapuru

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Cruz MT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Uirapuru let in goals in 87% of their last 15 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Away concern: Uirapuru has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Santa Cruz MT scored in 52% of their last 21 games.

Scoring Trends

Santa Cruz MT VS Uirapuru
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Cruz MT

(Home)
07 Oct
Uniao Rondonopolis
1 : 0
Santa Cruz MT
30 Sept
Chapada
2 : 0
Santa Cruz MT
27 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
4 : 0
Uniao Rondonopolis
19 Sept
Uirapuru
2 : 3
Santa Cruz MT
13 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 2
Várzea Grande EC
Page 1 of 5

Uirapuru

(Away)
03 Oct
Uirapuru
1 : 2
Uniao Rondonopolis
30 Sept
Uniao Rondonopolis
0 : 0
Uirapuru
23 Sept
Uirapuru
1 : 4
Várzea Grande EC
19 Sept
Uirapuru
2 : 3
Santa Cruz MT
16 Sept
Chapada
1 : 1
Uirapuru
Page 1 of 3

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uniao Rondonopolis 6 4 1 1 7:6 13
2 Chapada 5 3 1 1 11:4 10
3 Santa Cruz MT 5 2 0 3 8:7 6
4 Várzea Grande EC 5 2 0 3 9:13 6
5 Uirapuru 5 0 2 3 5:10 2
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cuiaba 4 4 0 0 13:2 12
2 Sorriso EC 4 2 0 2 9:7 6
3 Cacerense 4 2 0 2 7:10 6
4 Campo Novo 4 0 0 4 3:13 0
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)