Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Santa Cruz MT vs Várzea Grande EC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Santa Cruz MT Logo

Santa Cruz MT

1 - 2
FT
Várzea Grande EC Logo

Várzea Grande EC

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Santa Cruz MT
15%
Draws
28%
Várzea Grande EC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Santa Cruz MT

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Várzea Grande EC at 1.21 per game, Santa Cruz MT at 1.14.
  • Win probability leans Santa Cruz MT's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Várzea Grande EC, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Santa Cruz MT Clean Sheet 20%
Várzea Grande EC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz MT Várzea Grande EC
Matches Played 21 28
Wins 7 7
Draws 5 6
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.14 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.45 1.03
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Santa Cruz MT vs Várzea Grande EC
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz MT 42 / 100
Várzea Grande EC 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz MT Várzea Grande EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Várzea Grande EC conceded in 86% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Várzea Grande EC lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Santa Cruz MT scored in 52% of their last 21 games.

Scoring Trends

Santa Cruz MT VS Várzea Grande EC
0.75 Goals Scored 1.43
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.14
50% Over 1.5 86%
25% Over 2.5 86%
0% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Cruz MT

(Home)
07 Oct
Uniao Rondonopolis
1 : 0
Santa Cruz MT
30 Sept
Chapada
2 : 0
Santa Cruz MT
27 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
4 : 0
Uniao Rondonopolis
19 Sept
Uirapuru
2 : 3
Santa Cruz MT
13 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 2
Várzea Grande EC
Page 1 of 5

Várzea Grande EC

(Away)
10 Oct
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 2
Uirapuru
07 Oct
Chapada
3 : 0
Várzea Grande EC
27 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
2 : 5
Chapada
23 Sept
Uirapuru
1 : 4
Várzea Grande EC
20 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Uniao Rondonopolis
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uniao Rondonopolis 6 4 1 1 7:6 13
2 Chapada 5 3 1 1 11:4 10
3 Santa Cruz MT 5 2 0 3 8:7 6
4 Várzea Grande EC 6 2 0 4 10:15 6
5 Uirapuru 6 1 2 3 7:11 5
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cuiaba 4 4 0 0 13:2 12
2 Sorriso EC 4 2 0 2 9:7 6
3 Cacerense 4 2 0 2 7:10 6
4 Campo Novo 4 0 0 4 3:13 0
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)