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Santa Cruz RJ vs Barra Mansa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2
Mon, Oct 12, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Santa Cruz RJ host Barra Mansa in the Carioca B2. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: Santa Cruz RJ at 2.06 goals for, 1.45 against; Barra Mansa at 0.9 for, 1.37 against. Past meetings favor Santa Cruz RJ slightly — 1-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Nov 2, 2025, ending 3:0. The numbers (1.38 xG vs 0.81) point toward Santa Cruz RJ. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Santa Cruz RJ
20%
Draws
29%
Barra Mansa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Santa Cruz RJ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Santa Cruz RJ come out ahead of Barra Mansa on wins alone.
  • Santa Cruz RJ are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Santa Cruz RJ Clean Sheet 20%
Barra Mansa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz RJ Barra Mansa
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 8
Draws 4 9
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 2.06 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 2, 2025 Carioca B2
Santa Cruz RJ vs Barra Mansa
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz RJ 58 / 100
Barra Mansa 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz RJ Barra Mansa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Cruz RJ Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Cruz RJ's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Barra Mansa let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Santa Cruz RJ has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Santa Cruz RJ VS Barra Mansa
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Cruz RJ

(Home)
05 Oct
Serra Macaense
3 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
01 Oct
Belford Roxo
3 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
27 Sept
Santa Cruz RJ
1 : 0
Cardoso Moreira
21 Sept
FC Rio de Janeiro
1 : 3
Santa Cruz RJ
13 Sept
Santa Cruz RJ
3 : 0
Buzios
Page 1 of 7

Barra Mansa

(Away)
05 Oct
Barra Mansa
0 : 0
Cardoso Moreira
01 Oct
FC Rio de Janeiro
2 : 0
Barra Mansa
28 Sept
Barra Mansa
1 : 0
Buzios
20 Sept
Paduano EC
2 : 2
Barra Mansa
14 Sept
Barra Mansa
1 : 4
7 de Abril
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Friburguense 7 5 2 0 12:4 17
2 Serra Macaense 7 4 1 2 14:8 13
3 Cardoso Moreira 7 4 1 2 9:5 13
4 Belford Roxo 7 3 3 1 14:6 12
5 Santa Cruz RJ 7 4 0 3 9:8 12
6 Paduano EC 7 3 2 2 9:6 11
7 FC Rio de Janeiro 7 3 1 3 11:7 10
8 7 de Abril 7 3 1 3 10:10 10
9 Campos AA 7 2 3 2 11:11 9
10 Barra Mansa 7 1 4 2 6:10 7
11 Buzios 7 1 0 6 5:18 3
12 Paraty 7 0 0 7 4:21 0
Promotion - Carioca B2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C 2027 (Main)