Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Santa Cruz SE vs Forca Jovem Aquidaba

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 3
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Santa Cruz SE play Forca Jovem Aquidaba in the Sergipano 3. It looks like a close match. Recently, Santa Cruz SE averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.81 conceded. Forca Jovem Aquidaba averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. In past meetings, Santa Cruz SE won 0, Forca Jovem Aquidaba won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 11, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Santa Cruz SE and 1.75 for Forca Jovem Aquidaba. This points to a Forca Jovem Aquidaba double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Santa Cruz SE
15%
Draws
54%
Forca Jovem Aquidaba
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Forca Jovem Aquidaba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Santa Cruz SE picked up more points recently compared to Forca Jovem Aquidaba.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Santa Cruz SE Clean Sheet 12%
Forca Jovem Aquidaba Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz SE Forca Jovem Aquidaba
Matches Played 16 14
Wins 5 6
Draws 0 0
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.25 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2025 Sergipano 3
Santa Cruz SE vs Forca Jovem Aquidaba
1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz SE 30 / 100
Forca Jovem Aquidaba 51 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz SE Forca Jovem Aquidaba

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Forca Jovem Aquidaba Win (2)
Secondary Pick Forca Jovem Aquidaba & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.69
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Santa Cruz SE attacking → ← attacking Forca Jovem Aquidaba

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Cruz SE scored in 75% of their last 16 games.

Forca Jovem Aquidaba let in goals in 86% of their last 14 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Santa Cruz SE went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Forca Jovem Aquidaba lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

15 Points in last 5 18
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Socorro651019:416
2Propria642012:314
3Socorrense641122:713
4Santa Cruz SE62048:116
5Forca Jovem Aquidaba62045:86
6Coritiba SE61052:203
7Aracaju FC61056:210
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Estanciano EC642012:414
2Sete de Junho63308:112
3CS Maruinense63127:510
4Botafogo ASF623111:99
5AD Boquinhense62136:87
6Amadense61054:113
7Riachao60242:122