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Santa Cruz vs Volta Redonda

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Estádio José do Rego Maciel
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Santa Cruz play Volta Redonda in the Serie C. It looks like a close match. Recently, Santa Cruz averaged 1 goals scored and 0.89 conceded. Volta Redonda averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Santa Cruz won 4, Volta Redonda won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Santa Cruz and 0.76 for Volta Redonda. This points to a Santa Cruz double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Santa Cruz
22%
Draws
34%
Volta Redonda
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Santa Cruz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Santa Cruz picked up more points recently compared to Volta Redonda.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 0.76 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 27%
Volta Redonda Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Cruz Volta Redonda
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 10 11
Draws 6 7
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.89 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Serie C
Santa Cruz vs Volta Redonda
2:0
Aug 30, 2021 Serie C
Santa Cruz vs Volta Redonda
2:1
Jun 26, 2021 Serie C
Volta Redonda vs Santa Cruz
0:0
Jul 20, 1978 Serie A Betano
Santa Cruz vs Volta Redonda
5:1
Sep 22, 1976 Serie A Betano
Santa Cruz vs Volta Redonda
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santa Cruz Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Favela
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marquinhos
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Volta Redonda Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Cruz 45 / 100
Volta Redonda 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Cruz Volta Redonda

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Santa Cruz or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.5%
3.23
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Santa Cruz attacking → ← attacking Volta Redonda

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Cruz scored in 57% of their last 28 games.

Volta Redonda let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Santa Cruz went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Volta Redonda lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 40
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Guarani1264223:1122
2Internacional de Limeira1364316:1422
3Brusque1263317:1321
4Santa Cruz1363413:921
5Paysandu PA1262419:1620
6Maringa FC1354426:2419
7Ituano1354415:1319
8Ferroviaria1254312:1019
9Floresta EC1253415:1418
10Amazonas1252513:1617
11Volta Redonda1352610:1517
12SER Caxias do Sul1245312:1017
13Botafogo PB1251615:1516
14Figueirense1244411:1516
15Ypiranga FC1243515:1715
16Barra FC (Santa Catarina)1336416:1415
17Maranhao133559:1314
18Confianca133288:1211
19Itabaiana122469:1710
20Anapolis122379:159