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Santa Fe vs Fortaleza C.E.I.F. - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Colombia Colombia

Copa Colombia Estadio El Campín, Bogotá
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Copa Colombia. This one's hard to separate. Fortaleza C.E.I.F. have shipped 1.43 goals a game lately, while Santa Fe have conceded 0.79 and scored 1.5. Head-to-head, Santa Fe have won 2 to Fortaleza C.E.I.F.'s 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Sep 5, 2026, ending 2:2. The numbers (1.56 xG vs 1.06) point toward Santa Fe. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Santa Fe
35%
Draws
19%
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Santa Fe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Santa Fe have won more games recently than Fortaleza C.E.I.F..
  • Win probability leans Santa Fe's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Santa Fe have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Santa Fe, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Santa Fe Clean Sheet 20%
Fortaleza C.E.I.F. Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santa Fe Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 14 5
Draws 10 12
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.18
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Primera A
Santa Fe vs Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
2:2
Feb 7, 2026 Primera A
Fortaleza C.E.I.F. vs Santa Fe
1:1
Dec 3, 2025 Primera A
Fortaleza C.E.I.F. vs Santa Fe
1:2
Nov 22, 2025 Primera A
Santa Fe vs Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
3:0
Aug 23, 2025 Primera A
Fortaleza C.E.I.F. vs Santa Fe
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santa Fe 58 / 100
Fortaleza C.E.I.F. 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santa Fe Fortaleza C.E.I.F.

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Fe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Fe found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Fortaleza C.E.I.F.'s defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Solid form: Santa Fe remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Santa Fe VS Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Santa Fe

(Home)
06 Oct
Ind. Medellin
0 : 1
Santa Fe
29 Sept
Dep. Pereira
1 : 2
Santa Fe
25 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 1
Santa Fe
23 Sept
Santa Fe
0 : 1
Dep. Cali
19 Sept
Alianza
1 : 4
Santa Fe
Page 1 of 6

Fortaleza C.E.I.F.

(Away)
04 Oct
Dep. Pasto
0 : 0
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
27 Sept
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
2 : 2
Deportes Tolima
20 Sept
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
1 : 4
Junior
11 Sept
Jaguares de Cordoba
2 : 2
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
05 Sept
Santa Fe
2 : 2
Fortaleza C.E.I.F.
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Inter Bogotá 2
Real Cundinamarca 1
Quindio 1
Llaneros 2
Barranquilla 2
Millonarios 1
America De Cali 4
Dep. Pereira 1
Atl. Nacional 3
Dep. Cali 0
Dep. Pasto 1
Ind. Medellin 4
Once Caldas 1
Alianza 0
Santa Fe -
Fortaleza C.E.I.F. -
Quarter-finals
Inter Bogotá -
Llaneros -
Barranquilla -
America De Cali -
Atl. Nacional -
Ind. Medellin -
Once Caldas -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -