Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Santamarina vs Costa Brava

Argentina Argentina

Torneo Federal Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin, Tandil
Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Ferrari T.
54'
Garoni J.
54' Event
Sosa D.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Torneo Federal game between Santamarina and Costa Brava finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Costa Brava.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Santamarina
20%
Draws
46%
Costa Brava
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Costa Brava

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Santamarina haven't matched Costa Brava's recent run of results.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Santamarina taking it.
  • Regular Torneo Federal form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 26%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Santamarina Clean Sheet 20%
Costa Brava Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santamarina Costa Brava
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 6 7
Draws 8 14
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 0.71 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Torneo Federal
Santamarina vs Costa Brava
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santamarina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Costa Brava Compare

Top Goalscorer Lentini R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gutierrez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santamarina 42 / 100
Costa Brava 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santamarina Costa Brava

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Costa Brava's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Santamarina scored in 39% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Santamarina remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Santamarina VS Costa Brava
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Santamarina

(Home)
06 Sept
Juventud U.U.
1 : 0
Santamarina
30 Aug
Santamarina
2 : 1
Circulo Deportivo
23 Aug
Guillermo Brown
1 : 0
Santamarina
17 Aug
Santamarina
2 : 0
Fundacion Amigos
12 Aug
Germinal
5 : 1
Santamarina
Page 1 of 6

Costa Brava

(Away)
06 Sept
Deportivo Rincon
1 : 1
Costa Brava
30 Aug
Costa Brava
1 : 2
Juventud U.U.
22 Aug
Circulo Deportivo
0 : 1
Costa Brava
16 Aug
Costa Brava
1 : 0
Guillermo Brown
12 Aug
Fundacion Amigos
0 : 0
Costa Brava
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Boca Unidos 6 4 2 0 11:3 14
2 Gimnasia E.R. 6 3 2 1 8:1 11
3 Atletico Escobar 7 3 2 2 7:9 11
4 Independiente Chivilcoy 6 2 3 1 5:3 9
5 Defensores de Vilelas 6 2 2 2 9:8 8
6 El Linqueno 6 1 4 1 4:3 7
7 Sportivo Las Parejas 6 1 3 2 3:3 6
8 Sarmiento Resistencia 6 2 0 4 4:12 6
9 Tucuman Central 7 0 2 5 8:17 2
Promotion - Torneo Federal (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportivo Rincon 7 3 3 1 8:4 12
2 San Martin Mendoza 7 3 3 1 7:6 12
3 Fundacion Amigos 7 3 2 2 6:4 11
4 Germinal 7 2 4 1 9:5 10
5 Costa Brava 7 2 4 1 7:6 10
6 Guillermo Brown 7 3 1 3 6:6 10
7 Juventud U.U. 7 3 1 3 6:6 10
8 Circulo Deportivo 7 2 2 3 4:5 8
9 Santamarina 7 2 0 5 5:10 6
10 Sol de Mayo 7 2 0 5 6:12 6
Promotion - Torneo Federal (Promotion - Play Offs)