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Santegidiese vs Recanatese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

Match Events

58' Event
De Marco C.
83' Event
Casolla F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F game between Santegidiese and Recanatese finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Santegidiese
35%
Draws
28%
Recanatese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Santegidiese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Santegidiese haven't matched Recanatese's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Recanatese a 28% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Santegidiese Clean Sheet 20%
Recanatese Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santegidiese Recanatese
Matches Played 6 28
Wins 2 7
Draws 2 10
Losses 2 11
Goals Scored 0.83 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 0.96
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Santegidiese vs Recanatese
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santegidiese Compare

Top Goalscorer De Marco C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Recanatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Casolla F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santegidiese 16 / 100
Recanatese 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santegidiese Recanatese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Recanatese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santegidiese scored in 67% of their last 6 games.

Recanatese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Santegidiese went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Santegidiese VS Recanatese
0.83 Goals Scored 1.25
0.67 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
17% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Santegidiese

(Home)
27 Sept
Maceratese
1 : 1
Santegidiese
20 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 0
Angelana
16 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 0
Santegidiese
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1
Recanatese
06 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 2
Santegidiese
Page 1 of 2

Recanatese

(Away)
27 Sept
Lanciano FC
4 : 1
Recanatese
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1
Foligno
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1
Recanatese
06 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Pietralunga
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vigor Senigallia 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Aquila Calcio 5 3 2 0 9:2 11
3 Teramo 5 3 1 1 11:7 10
4 Foligno 5 3 1 1 6:6 10
5 Ancona 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Santegidiese 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
7 Montecchio Gallo 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
8 Lanciano FC 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
9 Atletico Ascoli 5 2 1 2 6:7 7
10 Fossombrone 5 2 1 2 5:9 7
11 Recanatese 5 1 3 1 6:6 6
12 Notaresco Calcio 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Giulianova 5 1 1 3 7:8 4
14 Maceratese 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
15 Sporting Trestina 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Angelana 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
17 Termoli 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
18 Pietralunga 5 0 2 3 2:6 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)