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Santos PA vs Paragominas

Brazil Brazil

Paraense B1 2024
Santos PA Logo

Santos PA

0 - 2
FT
Paragominas Logo

Paragominas

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Santos PA play Paragominas in the Paraense B1 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Santos PA averaged 1 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Paragominas averaged 1.47 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. In past meetings, Santos PA won 0, Paragominas won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 5, 2024 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Santos PA and 1.81 for Paragominas. This points to a Paragominas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Santos PA
35%
Draws
42%
Paragominas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Paragominas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Santos PA picked up more points recently compared to Paragominas.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Santos PA Clean Sheet 11%
Paragominas Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santos PA Paragominas
Matches Played 21 30
Wins 5 11
Draws 6 12
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2024 Paraense A2
Paragominas vs Santos PA
4:0
Sep 14, 2024 Paraense A2
Santos PA vs Paragominas
0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santos PA 23 / 100
Paragominas 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santos PA Paragominas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Paragominas or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +53.4%
6.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Santos PA attacking → ← attacking Paragominas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santos PA scored in 48% of their last 21 games.

Paragominas let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Santos PA went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Paragominas lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 45
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Paragominas632111:411
2Capitao Poco63126:510
3Pinheirense62316:69
4Santos PA60241:92
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Izabelense63309:212
2Amazonia IFC62225:48
3Fonte Nova61325:106
4Uniao Paraense60423:64
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sao Raimundo PA431010:110
2ESMAC41214:65
3CA Vila Rica40132:91
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independente42025:66
2Carajas41217:65
3Itupiranga41215:55