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Santos PA vs Pinheirense

Brazil Brazil

Paraense B1 2024
Santos PA Logo

Santos PA

0 - 1
FT
Pinheirense Logo

Pinheirense

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Santos PA play Pinheirense in the Paraense B1 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Santos PA averaged 1 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Pinheirense averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. In past meetings, Santos PA won 0, Pinheirense won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 28, 2024 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.84 for Santos PA and 1.06 for Pinheirense. This points to a Santos PA double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Santos PA
32%
Draws
32%
Pinheirense
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Santos PA

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Santos PA picked up more points recently compared to Pinheirense.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.84 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Santos PA Clean Sheet 22%
Pinheirense Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santos PA Pinheirense
Matches Played 21 20
Wins 5 3
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.80

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 28, 2024 Paraense A2
Santos PA vs Pinheirense
0:1
Sep 19, 2024 Paraense A2
Pinheirense vs Santos PA
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santos PA 37 / 100
Pinheirense 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santos PA Pinheirense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Santos PA or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Santos PA attacking → ← attacking Pinheirense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santos PA scored in 48% of their last 21 games.

Pinheirense let in goals in 85% of their last 20 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Santos PA went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Pinheirense lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 16
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.80

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Paragominas632111:411
2Capitao Poco63126:510
3Pinheirense62316:69
4Santos PA60241:92
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Izabelense63309:212
2Amazonia IFC62225:48
3Fonte Nova61325:106
4Uniao Paraense60423:64
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sao Raimundo PA431010:110
2ESMAC41214:65
3CA Vila Rica40132:91
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independente42025:66
2Carajas41217:65
3Itupiranga41215:55