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Santos vs Gremio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos
Tue, Nov 24, 2026
VS
12:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Santos host Gremio in the Serie A. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Santos at 1.61 goals for, 1.18 against; Gremio at 1.28 for, 1.38 against. Past meetings favor Gremio slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 23, 2026, ending 3:2. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 1.31) point toward Santos. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Santos
30%
Draws
47%
Gremio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gremio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Santos come out ahead of Gremio on wins alone.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Santos Clean Sheet 18%
Gremio Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santos Gremio
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 8 8
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.61 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Serie A
Gremio vs Santos
3:2
Oct 2, 2025 Serie A
Santos vs Gremio
1:1
May 4, 2025 Serie A
Gremio vs Santos
1:0
Aug 20, 2023 Serie A
Santos vs Gremio
2:1
Apr 16, 2023 Serie A
Gremio vs Santos
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santos 32 / 100
Gremio 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santos Gremio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gremio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santos's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Gremio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Santos has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Santos VS Gremio
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Santos

(Home)
02 Nov
Bragantino
2 : 1
Santos
28 Oct
Santos
0 : 0
Palmeiras
25 Oct
Santos
1 : 1
Bahia
18 Oct
Fluminense
1 : 2
Santos
11 Oct
Atletico-MG
2 : 1
Santos
Page 1 of 6

Gremio

(Away)
07 Nov
Atletico-MG
1 : 1
Gremio
04 Nov
Flamengo RJ
3 : 1
Gremio
01 Nov
Gremio
2 : 0
Atletico-MG
30 Oct
Gremio
2 : 0
Athletico-PR
26 Oct
Coritiba
0 : 1
Gremio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 34 23 7 4 71:29 76
2 Palmeiras 34 21 10 3 62:23 73
3 Cruzeiro 34 18 6 10 55:48 60
4 Fluminense 34 16 9 9 55:42 57
5 Athletico-PR 34 15 9 10 51:43 54
6 Bahia 34 14 11 9 50:45 53
7 Atletico-MG 34 14 8 12 44:40 50
8 Bragantino 34 13 8 13 44:39 47
9 Santos 34 12 11 11 50:49 47
10 Sao Paulo 34 12 8 14 39:39 44
11 Botafogo RJ 34 11 9 14 46:53 42
12 Coritiba 34 11 9 14 40:51 42
13 Vasco 33 11 8 14 43:50 41
14 Mirassol 34 10 10 14 39:48 40
15 Vitoria 34 10 8 16 35:51 38
16 Internacional 34 9 11 14 38:42 38
17 Corinthians 34 9 10 15 36:42 37
18 Gremio 34 9 10 15 38:47 37
19 Remo 34 6 11 17 37:57 29
20 Chapecoense-SC 33 4 9 20 33:68 21
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)