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Santos vs Vitoria

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Estadio Urbano Caldeira
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Willian Arao
19' Event
Miguelito
Assist: Oliva C.
21'
Caique Goncalves

AI Match Summary

Santos in this Serie A Betano matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Santos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Santos
33%
Draws
27%
Vitoria
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Santos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vitoria lately — more wins on the board than Santos.
  • Model gives Santos a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Santos have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Santos Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santos Vitoria
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 16
Draws 11 5
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.88 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Serie A Betano
Santos vs Vitoria
3:1
Oct 21, 2025 Serie A Betano
Santos vs Vitoria
0:1
May 25, 2025 Serie A Betano
Vitoria vs Santos
0:1
Oct 6, 2018 Serie A Betano
Vitoria vs Santos
0:1
Jun 3, 2018 Serie A Betano
Santos vs Vitoria
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santos Compare

Top Goalscorer Miguelito
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barreal A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Vitoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Rene
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santos 50 / 100
Vitoria 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santos Vitoria

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santos's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Vitoria conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Santos has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Santos VS Vitoria
1.88 Goals Scored 2.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1995529:2432
4Bragantino1993726:2030
5Athletico-PR1893624:1830
6Bahia1885527:2329
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Botafogo RJ1874733:3225
10Vitoria1874722:2525
11Atletico-MG1873822:2324
12Corinthians1866618:1924
13Cruzeiro1866624:2824
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Santos1956827:3121
16Gremio1956821:2521
17Vasco1955922:3020
18Mirassol1854920:2519
19Remo1846821:2918
20Chapecoense-SC18161117:359