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Santurtzi vs Alaves C

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Caneda A.
51' Event
Guerras A.
63' Event
Saenz I.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Santurtzi and Alaves C finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Santurtzi
20%
Draws
51%
Alaves C
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alaves C

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Alaves C come out ahead of Santurtzi on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Alaves C's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Santurtzi Clean Sheet 11%
Alaves C Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santurtzi Alaves C
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 8 15
Draws 9 7
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 0.96 2
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs Alaves C
2:2
Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves C vs Santurtzi
1:1
May 3, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs Alaves C
2:0
Dec 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Alaves C vs Santurtzi
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Santurtzi Compare

Top Goalscorer Guerras A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hierro I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Alaves C Compare

Top Goalscorer Caneda A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Saenz I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santurtzi 14 / 100
Alaves C 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santurtzi Alaves C

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alaves C Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santurtzi found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

Alaves C's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Santurtzi stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Santurtzi VS Alaves C
1 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Santurtzi

(Home)
13 Sept
Santurtzi
2 : 1
SCD Durango
05 Sept
Beasain
2 : 0
Santurtzi
14 Aug
Eibar C
3 : 1
Santurtzi
12 Aug
Santurtzi
0 : 0
SD Erandio
09 May
SCD Durango
4 : 1
Santurtzi
Page 1 of 6

Alaves C

(Away)
19 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1
Alaves C
12 Sept
Alaves C
3 : 0
Amurrio Club
05 Sept
Eibar C
1 : 1
Alaves C
02 Sept
Real Aranjuez
1 : 6
Alaves C
22 Aug
Beasain
3 : 1
Alaves C
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)