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Santutxu FC vs Balmaseda

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Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Santutxu FC play Balmaseda in the Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021. It looks like a close match. Recently, Santutxu FC averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. Balmaseda averaged 1 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Santutxu FC won 3, Balmaseda won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 14, 2021 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Santutxu FC and 1.19 for Balmaseda. This points to a Balmaseda double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Santutxu FC
26%
Draws
37%
Balmaseda
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Balmaseda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence
  • Santutxu FC picked up more points recently compared to Balmaseda.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Santutxu FC Clean Sheet 20%
Balmaseda Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Santutxu FC Balmaseda
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 7 7
Draws 11 12
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.13 1
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santutxu FC vs Balmaseda
1:0
Dec 19, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Balmaseda vs Santutxu FC
1:2
Feb 15, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Balmaseda vs Santutxu FC
1:2
Sep 22, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santutxu FC vs Balmaseda
0:2
Mar 24, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santutxu FC vs Balmaseda
1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Santutxu FC 37 / 100
Balmaseda 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Santutxu FC Balmaseda

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Balmaseda or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Santutxu FC attacking → ← attacking Balmaseda

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santutxu FC scored in 63% of their last 32 games.

Balmaseda let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Santutxu FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Balmaseda lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

32 Points in last 5 33
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Gernika Club20134339:1643
2Real Sociedad C20124448:2740
3Sestao20123540:1339
4SD Deusto20113630:2436
5Santutxu FC2085720:2329
6Beasain2069520:1427
7Tolosa2066821:2624
8Aurrera Ondarroa20551023:3120
9Balmaseda2039822:2718
10Somorrostro20451120:3117
11Urgatzi20311611:6210
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1CD Vitoria2098320:435
2Urduliz FT2098328:1835
3Pasaia2097422:1434
4Basconia2079424:1530
5Anaitasuna FT2079420:1930
6San Ignacio2078519:1929
7Santurtzi2065918:2723
8SCD Durango2057817:2022
9Sodupe2048821:2320
10CD Ariznabarra20371012:2816
11Lagun Onak20361117:3115