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Sao Bento vs Sao Jose EC

Brazil Brazil

Copa Paulista 2025 Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sao Bento play Sao Jose EC in the Copa Paulista 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sao Bento averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Sao Jose EC averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.91 conceded. In past meetings, Sao Bento won 1, Sao Jose EC won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jan 28, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Sao Bento and 1.87 for Sao Jose EC. This points to a Sao Jose EC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Sao Bento
27%
Draws
52%
Sao Jose EC
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Sao Jose EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence
  • Sao Bento picked up more points recently compared to Sao Jose EC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.87 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Sao Bento Clean Sheet 10%
Sao Jose EC Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Bento Sao Jose EC
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 4 16
Draws 8 6
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 0.83 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.53 0.91
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.86 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2026 Paulista A2
Sao Bento vs Sao Jose EC
0:1
Aug 30, 2025 Copa Paulista
Sao Jose EC vs Sao Bento
2:1
Aug 25, 2025 Copa Paulista
Sao Bento vs Sao Jose EC
1:1
Feb 23, 2025 Paulista A2
Sao Jose EC vs Sao Bento
1:1
Mar 16, 2024 Paulista A2
Sao Bento vs Sao Jose EC
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Bento Compare

Top Goalscorer Marco Gabriel
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Sao Jose EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernando Junior
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Bento 21 / 100
Sao Jose EC 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Bento Sao Jose EC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sao Jose EC or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +61.5%
7.69
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sao Bento attacking → ← attacking Sao Jose EC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Bento scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Sao Jose EC let in goals in 71% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Sao Bento went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Sao Jose EC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

20 Points in last 5 54
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.86 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75