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Sao Caetano vs Lemense Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

62' Event
Caiuby F.
64' Event
Carlos Andre
78'
Caua

AI Match Summary

Sao Caetano in this Paulista A4 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sao Caetano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Sao Caetano
30%
Draws
47%
Lemense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lemense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sao Caetano lately — more wins on the board than Lemense.
  • Win probability leans Lemense's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Sao Caetano Clean Sheet 25%
Lemense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Caetano Lemense
Matches Played 39 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 12 7
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 0.97 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.32 0.85
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Paulista A4
Sao Caetano vs Lemense
2:0
Jan 31, 2024 Paulista A3
Sao Caetano vs Lemense
1:2
Feb 11, 2023 Paulista A2
Lemense vs Sao Caetano
1:0
Feb 19, 2022 Paulista A2
Sao Caetano vs Lemense
0:0
Oct 15, 2021 Copa Paulista
Lemense vs Sao Caetano
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Caetano Compare

Top Goalscorer Caiuby F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carlos Andre
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.66

Lemense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.47

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Caetano 10 / 100
Lemense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Caetano Lemense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lemense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Lemense conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Lemense's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Sao Caetano scored in 54% of their last 39 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sao Caetano VS Lemense
1.25 Goals Scored 0.2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.4
75% Over 1.5 80%
63% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Caetano

(Home)
05 Sept
Primavera EC
7 : 0
Sao Caetano
29 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 5
Primavera EC
22 Aug
Sao Jose EC
0 : 0
Sao Caetano
17 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 1
Santo Andre
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
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Lemense

(Away)
18 Apr
Inter de Bebedouro
2 : 0
Lemense
11 Apr
Lemense
0 : 2
Inter de Bebedouro
04 Apr
Lemense
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
28 Mar
ECUS SP
2 : 0
Lemense
25 Mar
Lemense
0 : 0
Jabaquara
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)