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Sao Caetano vs Penapolense

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Juninho
35' Event
Tiago Coelho

AI Match Summary

Penapolense in this Paulista A4 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penapolense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Sao Caetano
35%
Draws
58%
Penapolense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Penapolense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Penapolense lately — more wins on the board than Sao Caetano.
  • Penapolense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Sao Caetano Clean Sheet 12%
Penapolense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Caetano Penapolense
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 11 12
Draws 10 13
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.03 1.42
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Paulista A4
Sao Caetano vs Penapolense
2:2
Apr 25, 2026 Paulista A4
Penapolense vs Sao Caetano
2:1
Feb 21, 2026 Paulista A4
Sao Caetano vs Penapolense
0:2
Mar 16, 2025 Paulista A4
Penapolense vs Sao Caetano
1:1
Jan 22, 2020 Paulista A2
Penapolense vs Sao Caetano
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Caetano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Penapolense Compare

Top Goalscorer Juninho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tiago Coelho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Caetano 10 / 100
Penapolense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Caetano Penapolense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penapolense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Penapolense has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Sao Caetano scored in 55% of their last 33 games.

Recent resilience: Sao Caetano stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sao Caetano VS Penapolense
0.75 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Caetano

(Home)
29 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 5
Primavera EC
22 Aug
Sao Jose EC
0 : 0
Sao Caetano
17 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 1
Santo Andre
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
01 Aug
Sao Caetano
1 : 4
EC Sao Bernardo
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Penapolense

(Away)
09 May
Inter de Bebedouro
1 : 1
Penapolense
06 May
Penapolense
2 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
02 May
Sao Caetano
2 : 2
Penapolense
25 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 1
Sao Caetano
18 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 2
Taquaritinga
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)