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Sao Cristovao vs Friburguense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
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Match Events

8' Event
Fabinho Polhao
61' Event
Patryck
88' Event
Alves de Macedo I.

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Sao Cristovao and Friburguense finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sao Cristovao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Sao Cristovao
35%
Draws
45%
Friburguense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Friburguense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sao Cristovao come out ahead of Friburguense on wins alone.
  • 45% — that's where the model lands on Friburguense taking it.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22.4%
Sao Cristovao Clean Sheet 21%
Friburguense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Cristovao Friburguense
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 8 7
Draws 8 9
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 0.78 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.89 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2025 Carioca B1
Sao Cristovao vs Friburguense
3:1
Oct 12, 2024 Carioca B1
Sao Cristovao vs Friburguense
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Cristovao Compare

Top Goalscorer Patryck
2 Goals
Assists Leader Fabinho Polhao
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Friburguense Compare

Top Goalscorer Alves de Macedo I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Cristovao 24 / 100
Friburguense 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Cristovao Friburguense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Friburguense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Friburguense has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Sao Cristovao stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Sao Cristovao found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (27 games).

Scoring Trends

Sao Cristovao VS Friburguense
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Cristovao

(Home)
25 Sept
AA Carapebus
0 : 1
Sao Cristovao
19 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 1
Duque de Caxias
12 Sept
Nova Cidade
2 : 2
Sao Cristovao
05 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 0
Goncalense
08 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
2 : 1
Sao Cristovao
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Friburguense

(Away)
27 Sept
Friburguense
2 : 2
Belford Roxo
20 Sept
Friburguense
2 : 0
Campos AA
13 Sept
Paraty
1 : 4
Friburguense
06 Sept
Friburguense
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
30 Aug
Serra Macaense
0 : 1
Friburguense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)