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Sao Joao de Ver vs AD Fafe

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio Clube de São João de Ver
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Cardoso F.
15' Event
Serrao J.
Own Goal
28'
Morais B.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Sao Joao de Ver and AD Fafe finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AD Fafe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Sao Joao de Ver
22%
Draws
18%
AD Fafe
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Sao Joao de Ver

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • AD Fafe carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Sao Joao de Ver a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Sao Joao de Ver Clean Sheet 68%
AD Fafe Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Joao de Ver AD Fafe
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 15
Draws 11 7
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.25 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.75 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2026 Liga 3
AD Fafe vs Sao Joao de Ver
1:2
Feb 21, 2026 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs AD Fafe
1:0
Jan 10, 2026 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs AD Fafe
0:4
Oct 5, 2025 Liga 3
AD Fafe vs Sao Joao de Ver
2:0
Jan 11, 2025 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs AD Fafe
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Joao de Ver Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

AD Fafe Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cardoso F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Joao de Ver 68 / 100
AD Fafe 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Joao de Ver AD Fafe

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JOA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Joao de Ver's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

AD Fafe let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Sao Joao de Ver remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sao Joao de Ver VS AD Fafe
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vitoria Guimaraes B1885520:1629
2Amarante FC1885519:1729
3Trofense1877423:1528
4Varzim1877426:1728
5Paredes1869322:1227
6Braga B1867516:1725
7AD Fafe1866623:2124
8AD Marco 091847715:2219
9Sao Joao de Ver1828811:2614
10Sanjoanense1827920:3213
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1CF Os Belenenses18122427:1638
2Mafra1897228:1934
3Academica1877429:1828
4Santarem1867515:1425
5Atletico CP1864816:1722
6Lusitano GC1864819:1922
7Amora1856719:2221
8Caldas SC1863917:2321
91º Dezembro1838713:2117
10Covilha1828810:2414