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Stadium Background

Sao Joao de Ver vs Amarante FC

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio Clube de São João de Ver
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Ventura
Assist: Saint-Louis J.
52'
Barbosa D.
55'
Vivas S.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Sao Joao de Ver and Amarante FC finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Amarante FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Sao Joao de Ver
30%
Draws
34%
Amarante FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sao Joao de Ver

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Amarante FC come out ahead of Sao Joao de Ver on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Sao Joao de Ver's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Amarante FC have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Sao Joao de Ver Clean Sheet 68%
Amarante FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Joao de Ver Amarante FC
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 16
Draws 11 8
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 1.13 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.5 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 4, 2026 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs Amarante FC
0:1
Sep 28, 2025 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Sao Joao de Ver
2:2
Dec 1, 2024 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Sao Joao de Ver
2:0
Aug 17, 2024 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs Amarante FC
0:3
Jun 1, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group
Amarante FC vs Sao Joao de Ver
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Joao de Ver Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Amarante FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ventura
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Joao de Ver 46 / 100
Amarante FC 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Joao de Ver Amarante FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Joao de Ver found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Sao Joao de Ver stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Amarante FC let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sao Joao de Ver VS Amarante FC
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vitoria Guimaraes B1885520:1629
2Amarante FC1885519:1729
3Trofense1877423:1528
4Varzim1877426:1728
5Paredes1869322:1227
6Braga B1867516:1725
7AD Fafe1866623:2124
8AD Marco 091847715:2219
9Sao Joao de Ver1828811:2614
10Sanjoanense1827920:3213
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1CF Os Belenenses18122427:1638
2Mafra1897228:1934
3Academica1877429:1828
4Santarem1867515:1425
5Atletico CP1864816:1722
6Lusitano GC1864819:1922
7Amora1856719:2221
8Caldas SC1863917:2321
91º Dezembro1838713:2117
10Covilha1828810:2414