Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sao Joao de Ver vs Paredes

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Estádio Clube de São João de Ver
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sao Joao de Ver play Paredes in the Liga 3. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sao Joao de Ver averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Paredes averaged 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. In past meetings, Sao Joao de Ver won 2, Paredes won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 18, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Sao Joao de Ver and 0.94 for Paredes. This points to a Paredes double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Sao Joao de Ver
35%
Draws
33%
Paredes
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Paredes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Sao Joao de Ver picked up more points recently compared to Paredes.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Sao Joao de Ver Clean Sheet 24%
Paredes Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Joao de Ver Paredes
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 9
Draws 11 12
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 0.97 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.3 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Liga 3
Paredes vs Sao Joao de Ver
0:0
Mar 15, 2026 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs Paredes
3:1
Jan 25, 2026 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs Paredes
1:2
Nov 2, 2025 Liga 3
Paredes vs Sao Joao de Ver
0:0
Oct 20, 2024 Taça de Portugal
Sao Joao de Ver vs Paredes
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Joao de Ver Compare

Top Goalscorer Rai Nascimento
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Paredes Compare

Top Goalscorer Yuk J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Erik
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Joao de Ver 34 / 100
Paredes 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Joao de Ver Paredes

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Paredes or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sao Joao de Ver attacking → ← attacking Paredes

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Joao de Ver scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Paredes let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Sao Joao de Ver went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Paredes lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 39
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Vitoria Guimaraes B1885520:1629
2Amarante FC1885519:1729
3Trofense1877423:1528
4Varzim1877426:1728
5Paredes1869322:1227
6Braga B1867516:1725
7AD Fafe1866623:2124
8AD Marco 091847715:2219
9Sao Joao de Ver1828811:2614
10Sanjoanense1827920:3213
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1CF Os Belenenses18122427:1638
2Mafra1897228:1934
3Academica1877429:1828
4Santarem1867515:1425
5Atletico CP1864816:1722
6Lusitano GC1864819:1922
7Amora1856719:2221
8Caldas SC1863917:2321
91º Dezembro1838713:2117
10Covilha1828810:2414