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Sao Joao de Ver vs Varzim - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Estádio Clube de São João de Ver, Aveiro
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sao Joao de Ver host Varzim in the Liga 3. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Sao Joao de Ver at 0.86 goals for, 1.03 against; Varzim at 1.22 for, 1.09 against. Head-to-head, Sao Joao de Ver have won 1 to Varzim's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Nov 29, 2025, ending 1:1. The numbers (0.75 xG vs 1.31) point toward Varzim. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Sao Joao de Ver
20%
Draws
60%
Varzim
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Varzim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Varzim lately — more wins on the board than Sao Joao de Ver.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Varzim taking it.
  • Regular Liga 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Sao Joao de Ver Clean Sheet 18%
Varzim Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Joao de Ver Varzim
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 8 13
Draws 11 5
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 0.86 1.22
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 29, 2025 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs Varzim
1:1
Aug 16, 2025 Liga 3
Varzim vs Sao Joao de Ver
4:0
Jan 26, 2025 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs Varzim
4:1
Oct 26, 2024 Liga 3
Varzim vs Sao Joao de Ver
2:0
Apr 22, 2023 Liga 3
Varzim vs Sao Joao de Ver
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Joao de Ver 15 / 100
Varzim 67 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Joao de Ver Varzim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varzim Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Joao de Ver's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Varzim's defensive record shows goals conceded in 78% of 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Varzim registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sao Joao de Ver VS Varzim
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Joao de Ver

(Home)
13 Sept
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
06 Sept
Sao Joao de Ver
0 : 0
AD Marco 09
30 Aug
Florgrade
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
22 Aug
Trofense
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
16 Aug
Sao Joao de Ver
1 : 3
AD Fafe
Page 1 of 6

Varzim

(Away)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
12 Sept
Varzim
1 : 2
SC Vianense
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4
Varzim
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paredes 5 4 0 1 8:4 12
2 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 6:3 10
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 8:5 9
4 AD Fafe 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
5 SC Vianense 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Leca 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
7 Vitoria Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 2:7 4
9 Sao Joao de Ver 5 0 3 2 3:6 3
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 5:10 2
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 13:2 15
2 Atletico CP 5 3 1 1 8:3 10
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 7:7 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 9:5 7
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7:7 7
6 Caldas SC 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
7 Lusitano GC 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Covilha 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
9 Santarem 5 1 1 3 3:10 4
10 Vitoria Sernache 5 0 1 4 3:13 1
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)