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Sao Jose EC vs Gremio Prudente

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sao Jose EC play Gremio Prudente in the Paulista A2. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sao Jose EC averaged 1.3 goals scored and 0.94 conceded. Gremio Prudente averaged 1.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. In past meetings, Sao Jose EC won 3, Gremio Prudente won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 14, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.51 for Sao Jose EC and 0.80 for Gremio Prudente. This points to a Sao Jose EC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Sao Jose EC
31%
Draws
30%
Gremio Prudente
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Sao Jose EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Sao Jose EC picked up more points recently compared to Gremio Prudente.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.51 vs 0.80 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Sao Jose EC Clean Sheet 26%
Gremio Prudente Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Jose EC Gremio Prudente
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 15 8
Draws 6 16
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.3 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.94 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 14, 2026 Paulista A2
Sao Jose EC vs Gremio Prudente
2:1
Jan 15, 2025 Paulista A2
Gremio Prudente vs Sao Jose EC
2:0
Sep 30, 2023 Copa Paulista
Sao Jose EC vs Gremio Prudente
2:0
Sep 23, 2023 Copa Paulista
Gremio Prudente vs Sao Jose EC
1:1
Apr 30, 2023 Paulista A3
Sao Jose EC vs Gremio Prudente
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Jose EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodrigo Carioca
1 Goals
Assists Leader Clessione
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Gremio Prudente Compare

Top Goalscorer de Melo Silva J. C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Jose EC 40 / 100
Gremio Prudente 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Jose EC Gremio Prudente

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sao Jose EC or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.5%
3.23
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sao Jose EC attacking → ← attacking Gremio Prudente

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Jose EC scored in 76% of their last 33 games.

Gremio Prudente let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Sao Jose EC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Gremio Prudente lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 40
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.86
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.14

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Agua Santa15101424:1431
2Ferroviaria1584322:1228
3Ituano1584322:1428
4Sao Jose EC1583421:1327
5Sertaozinho1574419:1925
6Votuporanguense1573516:1724
7Juventus-SP1565422:2023
8Piracicaba1564516:1522
9Osasco Sporting1557322:1822
10Santo Andre1553716:2218
11Taubate1538422:2317
12Internacional de Limeira1544715:1816
13Linense1527612:1813
14Monte Azul1526717:2212
15Gremio Prudente1519512:1612
16Sao Bento1512128:255