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Sao Joseense vs Parana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa Parana Estadio Olimpico Albino Turbay, Cianorte
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
06:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Copa Parana. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Parana have shipped 0.75 goals a game lately, while Sao Joseense have conceded 0.9 and scored 0.73. Head-to-head, Sao Joseense have won 2 to Parana's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Feb 9, 2025, ending 2:1. xG projections (0.63 - 1.06) back Parana to edge this. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
Sao Joseense
30%
Draws
64%
Parana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Parana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Parana come out ahead of Sao Joseense on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Parana's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Parana arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Sao Joseense, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Sao Joseense Clean Sheet 20%
Parana Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Joseense Parana
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 9 15
Draws 9 7
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 0.73 1.36
Goals Conceded 0.9 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 9, 2025 Paranaense
Sao Joseense vs Parana
2:1
Feb 2, 2022 Paranaense
Sao Joseense vs Parana
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Joseense 10 / 100
Parana 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Joseense Parana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Parana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Attacking prowess: Sao Joseense scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Parana let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.

Solid form: Sao Joseense remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sao Joseense VS Parana
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
25% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Joseense

(Home)
02 Oct
Athletico-PR B
1 : 0
Sao Joseense
26 Sept
Sao Joseense
1 : 4
FC Cascavel
19 Sept
Sao Joseense
1 : 1
Foz do Iguacu
13 Sept
Paranavai-PR
1 : 0
Sao Joseense
07 Sept
Londrina B
3 : 2
Sao Joseense
Page 1 of 6

Parana

(Away)
27 Sept
Parana
3 : 0
Paranavai-PR
21 Sept
Londrina B
2 : 2
Parana
13 Sept
Azuriz
0 : 0
Parana
05 Sept
Parana
2 : 1
FC Cascavel
29 Aug
Athletico-PR B
1 : 2
Parana
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Parana 5 3 2 0 9:4 11
2 Athletico-PR B 6 3 0 3 6:8 9
3 Foz do Iguacu 5 2 2 1 7:6 8
4 Paranavai-PR 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
5 Azuriz 5 2 1 2 3:2 7
6 Londrina B 5 1 3 1 7:7 6
7 FC Cascavel 5 1 1 3 9:10 4
8 Sao Joseense 6 1 1 4 5:10 4
Promotion - Copa Parana (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Parana (Play Offs)